Here’s my take on these match-ups...
(Mountain Time)
#6 KC Chiefs at #3 NE Patriots Sat 1/16 2:35pm CBS
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KC: On offense, KC’s strong running game, 3rd best in the NFL, should move the ball against NE’s fairly average run defense. KC’s average passing game should be neutralized by NE’s above-average pass defense.
On defense, KC’s 3rd best scoring defense and 4th best passing ydg defense should slow Tom Brady. Their average run deense should stop NE’s terrible run offense.
NE: KC beats NE in yardage superiority and in every category except in NE’s pass defense. This usually means a close game when the team with better scoring stats is not the same team as the one with the better ydg stats. On offense, it appears NE’s only weapon is the pass and is met with a fierce KC pass defense.
On defense, NE’ average ydg defense appears outmatched by KC’s 3rd best rush offense.
Anytime the better scoring team is not the better ydg team there is a great possibility of an upset. Here NE, the scoring favorite, is bested by KC in every ydg category except NE’s pass defense. This appears likely be a close game and KC has a good chance of winning. NE’s main hope appears to be Tom Brady pulling out another top passing game out of his hat.
Projected winner: NE
#11 GB Packers at #2 AZ Cardinals Sat 1/16 6:15pm NBC
AZ: AZ’s top passing game. fueling the NFL’s #2 scoring offense and aided by their fairly strong running game against GB’s 4th worst running ydg defense, should do well against GB’s fairly strong pass defense. However, GB’s fairly strong scoring defense could still possibly present a challenge.
AZ’s strong scoring defense should stop GB’s 3rd worst pass offense. Look for some AZ interceptions. AZ could be challenged by GB’s fairly strong running game.
Green Bay: GB’s mediocre offense could move the ball when it runs but looks weak in passing ydg against AZ’s strong scoring and passing ydg defense.
GB’s fairly strong scoring and passing ydg defense will have its hands full against AZ’s top scoring and passing offense. GB’s lousy run defense looks vulnerable to AZ’s fairly strong running offense
From all indications, it looks like AZ should blow GB outta their U of Phoenix Stadium.
Projected winner: AZ
#4 Seattle at #1 Carolina Sun 1/17 11:05am FOX
Carolina: Carolina is a weird monkey. They are #1 in scoring offense in the NFL but only 10th in ydg in both passing and running. Go figure. Maybe their special teams and field-goal scoring are outstanding. Maybe they cause a lot of turnovers.
Anyway, Carolina’s top scoring offense is matched by Seattle’s top scoring defense. This will be the best matchup in the game and maybe the entire playoffs – the best offense against the best defense. However, Carolina’s 10th ranked passing & running game in ydg appears outmatched by Seattle’s 4th & 5th ranked defense against the run and pass. Carolina will be challenged to move the ball well against Seattle.
Carolina’s 6th ranked scoring defense looks well-matched against Seattle’s 6th ranked offense. Carolina’s 2nd best pass ydg defense has a good chance of slowing Seattle’s 4th ranked pass offense. Carolina’s 7th ranked run defense is equal to Seattle’s 7th ranked ydg run offense.
Seattle: Seattle’s big sword is actually a shield – their top-ranked scoring defense, which will be tested by Carolina’s top-ranked scoring offense. However, in ydg, Seattle’s defense looks like it could slow Carolina in both the pass and the run.
Seattle’s tough scoring offense is met by an equally tough Carolina scoring defense. Both their tough passing and running games will be tested by Carolina’s tough or tougher defense. Marshawn Lynch could be a major factor if he plays.
Anytime the better scoring team is not the better ydg team there is a great possibility of an upset. Here, Carolina, the scoring favorite, beats Seattle in yrdg only in pass defense and Seattle has superior ydg in pass & run offense. This should be a very close game and Seattle has a good chance of winning.
Also another word about Marshawn Lynch. I don’t know if he has been used in kickoff returns but if not, Seattle could be missing a decisive weapon. At Cal Berkeley, Lynch was a threat to score and often did whenever he returned a kickoff or punt. If he plays and is used this way, again, Lynch could be a deciding factor for Seattle.
Projected winner: Carolina
#7 Pittsburgh at #10 Denver Sun 1/17 2:40pm CBS
Pitt: Pittsburgh’s 4th strongest scoring offense is equally matched against the Denver’s 4th strongest defense. In the pass, Pitt is 2nd on offense and Denver is 1st. Great matchup. Pitt will be sorely tested in the pass, especially Roethlisberger is not in there. Pitt’s 8th ranked running game will be severely challenged by Denver’s 1st place running defense.
On defense, Pitt’s fairly strong scoring defense should be able to stop Denver’s relatively weak scoring offense.
Denver: Denver’s game is their 4th best scoring defense and their top ranked defense in ydg against both the pass and the run. They will be tested by Pitt’s 4th ranked scoring offense, especially Pitts’s 2nd ranked pass ydg offense. Denver’s 1st place run ydg defense should have good success stopping Pitt’s 8th ranked run game.
Denver’s mediocre offense should have trouble against Pitt’s fairly strong defense.
This looks like another close game. If Roethlisberger isn’t in there, Denver could win.
Projected winner: Pittsburgh
I like the way you think.