CIVIL WAR LIKELY IN ANGOLA IN 2016 IF OIL DECLINES - my 2016 prediction:
I am predicting CIVIL WAR LIKELEY IN ANGOLA, spreading to the DRC triangle in the summer of 2016 adding to international tensions if oil does not come back to 60 $ a barrel. I am now sort of a “semi-expert” on Angola. The semi-Marxist MPLA current government strongholds are the oil rich West Coast and Cabinda, the UNITA Nationalists stronghold is diamond rich North East and “bible belt” East and South where various African-centric Christian sects also have a powerful presence.
The current President and autocrat has held a choke-hold on Angola since 1979, who holds degrees in petroleum engineering and has more than a casual interest in the oil industry, is basically the head of the MPLA, Movement of the People for the Liberation of Angola, that was Marxist in origin but after the demise of the Soviet Union as a benefactor has really become a corrupt family dynasty and Socialist in rhetoric which gained wealth by means of oil pruduction, little of the profits have been shared with the common people that is largely empoverished but has an elite oligarchy of Party members that provide security and self-serving bureaucratic and regulative control of commerce.
While the MPLA has autocratic control, and basically is totally dependent on oil to support the regime monetarily, their power is tenuous, there is a large sector, albeit suppressed, perhaps 40% or more so we are not talking about a small minority, that leans towards the UNITA, National Union for the Total Independence of Angola, which is Angolan Nationalists and tends to be pro-Western and anti-Communist, their dynamic and charismatic leader and “general” was killed in the battlefield in 2002. The diamond resources were a big part of monetary support. There are also some Christian sects aligned with UNITA and against the officially atheist government, though of late the current government really works with religious groups after the fall of the Soviet Union but has a vert negative view of Islamic fundamentalists - in fact pretty much all factions in Angola be it Marxist, MPLA, UNITA or the others, have an issue with Islam in Angola and has even considered shutting down mosques and all Muslim immigration.
Effectively, some say that was the end of UNITA in 2002, this is actually not the case and it is in full operation as an organization both with government “branches”, on the internet, and as an organization even if suppressed, and still commands wide support in Angola.
There is a third faction that has roots to the FLEC, Front for the Liberation of the Enclave of Cabinda, right in the heart of the oil country in the Cabinda area, the oil is cuntrolled by the MPLA but the FLEC wants INDEPENDENCE of the Cabinda Province from greater Angola. These region, I know a lot about.
This faction is it’s own identity, traditional, and has roots back to the former African former Kingdoms of Kakongo, Loango and N’Goyo in the region, these Nationalists took temporary control of the region after the fall of the Portuguese, but were then shortly invaded by the (then Marxist) MPLA with allied troops from Castro’s Cuba. In fact, the Communist Cuban government used chemical and biological weapons on the peoples there. The region is also sort of split off from Angola proper by geography including the Congo river and the actual area known as the Mayombe is broader and includes small parts of other modern African nations such as the DRC. There is an African centric Sufi religion there as well. They are unique from both MPLA and UNITA.
Angola has seen many horrors, violence, wars, but has huge natural resources. The current regime is gathered it’s wealth and fuels a corrupt government filled with nepotism, by means of oil which until recently was over $100 dollars per barrel. The impoverished has seen little of the profits of this wealth from the “neo-Marxist” government. HIV in Angola is a huge problem, many there are not fully aware of the medical facts involved with it, since the government does little to educate them and in fact sends out false narratives that the “plague” is put out by “the Portuguese and Colonialists” and the CIA. In addition, the regime could lose control of the country at any time due to many factions opposed to it, inclusive of even religious cults of a Kony type following (ref: Joseph Kony and the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), Uganda-DRC-CAR Triangle), even some Radical Islamists which all factions mutually hate. There are very powerful Christian factions, both Catholic and Protestant, that are militarizing.
Today Brent crude is $36 dollars a barrel.
The current regime is in big trouble. Their autocrat who has been running things since 1979 is an old man. Putin has met with him recently - it has to do with oil, of which Putin’s ecunomy has big stakes in.
Some think, Angola is far away and really doesn’t mean anything. They are wrong. 500,000 people have died in the fighting there since the 1970s. But the area involved, the ACTUAL “borders” are not Angola. It reaches North and East.
Civil War has been there before. But this is bigger than Civil War. Not bigger because other natiions will be impacted - even though they will, including the Trump Administration. Bigger in the sense of that entire triangle there in Africa. Communism, what was left of it there, is about to fall with brent at 36 dollars a barrel. And there is going to be likely a huge conflict and civil war - it will even play a part in the war on ISIS. Angola was about to outstrip Nigeria in oil production.
But the spooky jungle, is not going to listen to anyone but herself. Ebola also waits there, it follows the Congo River. There is a symbionic relationship to the River and the Hemorrhagetic Fever. A lot of people are going to likely die if and when the “civil war” comes from the death machines. But then will also come the disease, which has it’s cycle. Foreign troops will not be immune.
MY 2016 RESOLUTION:
I will do whatever I can, to defeat the Republican establishment and the Democratic Party in 2016
Why do I say this? Because here in Texas I received a Christmas card from Donald Trump today. Yes, I gave him a token donation some months back so he clearly had my address, but I've also given to other candidates (including Cruz) and have never received anything like this from any of them.
To me that gesture speaks to attention to detail that sets Trump apart. Trump mentioned in his latest rallies that he has a "great ground game" in Iowa and I believe him. This is not a man to be underestimated. His people make sure the details get done right and I think that's going to pay dividends as the actual voting begins.
I belong to the procrastinators club.
We’re about to make out predictions for 2015.
There’s some problems, however.
Nobody sent out dues notices so we’re not sure how many members we have.
We let the rent for the PO Box lapse, so we have nowhere to send them.
We then decided to postpone a decision to make a decision that anyone who actually joins our club can’t be member.
So, regarding our predictions, someone will get back to you on that.
I’ll go out on a limb and hereby predict an end to obama’s hell on earth toward the end of the year or in early January of 2017.
It’s going to be very ugly on many levels.
ping
Resolution, quit scratching this damn rash on my leg so it can heal.
Note: this topic is from . Thanks Perdogg -- although you got nuked for your brief opus about supporting Gary "Burn One On the Way Over to the Abortion Clinic" Johnson instead of DT. You were one of my favorite FReepers, wish you were back. I've been all-in for the Donald since I first realized what a force he was, and how none of the other candidates could stand up to him. Also, Hitlery is a grifter and c-word.
Anyway, I'm going to try to revive your annual prediction thread after a two year hiatus.