You don’t understand how Elections work, do you?
First off:
IA - Big Evangelical State. The polls saying Trump getting 33% are bogus. Evangelicals make up over half of caucus goers and Huckabee got more votes (38,000) than any Caucus candidate in GOP History. For Trump to get 33% he would have to get well over 45,000 votes which is 20,000 more than Romney got both times. The votes aren’t there for him. Cruz, however, WILL beat Huckabee’s 08 total and will probably get close to 40% in the final result. Throw in unpredictable weather in February and the lead wouod grow.
NH - You’re joking right. NH is not a conservative state. If Cruz gets anything close to 20% that’s a win considering Santorum-Gingrich got around 20% well behind Romney, Huntsman, and Paul, all leftists or doves.
SC - This is where Cruz wins if he wins IA, rather easily and the polls will shift dramatically after the first caucus. The reason is Cruz has the ground game to capitalize on his win in IA, something Santorum and Huckabee did not. Santorum’s organization was so weak that it allowed Newt to survive after he gobbled up some of Perry’s network when Perry dropped out before the primary. You can take it to the bank Trump won’t get 35% here. SC will be in the Cruz column.
Other than a contest in NV which Cruz will either win or finish 2nd (depending if Trump is ok losing 2 or all states bfeore this), comes Super Tuesday. If Cruz wins IA & SC like many expect he will be the favorite in all Super Tuesday states except maybe Vermont, Mass, and American Samoa.
Cruz then follows up with wins in LA, MS.
The big test (if Trump is still in it by then) is Michigan. This is the state that if Cruz wins the race will effectively be over.
Michigan will be the do or die state based on it’s place in the calendar.
Oddly enough, every state I mentioned as a VERY strong Cruz presence, especially Michigan. Cruz would have racked up so many victories before FL and OH that his delegate lead will be far and wide.
Trump doesn’t like to lose anything and I strongly suspect that if he loses IA, he will leave the race and endorse Cruz.
“You don’t understand how Elections work, do you?”
Yes actually I do. LOL!
You are running a scenario for Ted Cruz that is not substantiated by anything empirical. Its all emotion. I like Ted but this GOP race is 8 mos or more old and Ted Cruz has not polled well from the Beginning and he’s only marginally better now.
Since I actually do know how elections work let me inform you that historically the average GOP voter is middle of the road or slightly right of center. The same thing goes for the independent voter. Ted Cruz’s problem is not Donald Trump its Ted Cruz. He’s just too conservative for the average GOP voter. Most Republicans are finding Donald Trump a better fit. He is going to run away with the SEC because they are open primaries and the Indies will all vote for Trump. Cruz simply has no chance in SC. So if he wins Iowa he will die in NH and SC and for sure in Fl where he has no real support. After that he will just be the guy who won Iowa and I wouldn’t put money on that happening.
Unless a miracle of unknown origin happens Ted Cruz has no viable path to the nomination.