Two points higher in a year? That would kill the housing industry and cause a recession ... In an election year ... Send thousands of Mexicans back over the border ... ( I looking for the down side, be patient)...
Back in the olden days, the stock market return anticipated for financial planning purposes was ten percent a year. For bonds, it was five percent. Five percent by the end of next year presupposes a normal economy, in theory. I don’t think anyone considers this economy normal, and though the markets will take a bump if Trump is elected, the economy itself won’t respond until the second quarter, IMO. It takes time to adjust practices and expectations need a foundation.
So, I don’t see a normal Fed rate until 2017. I’ll stick with two percent.