[Cringing Negativism Network]

Yes I agree.

There was another poll also this morning, which showed Cruz pulling ahead.

The two polls were slightly different in the questions asked, so they got different results.

I just figured this one was an important contrary data point.

Thanks.

[TexasFreeper2009]

There will always be a few outlier polls, some times they will be in a canidates favor and other times they wont.

That’s why it’s important to look at a graph of the average of all polls which will tend to over time smooth out the effects of outlier polls in either direction.

Trump had a couple of polls in late October which in my opinion were outliers. Those polls make it look like he had a dip in support in late October but then came back. I think in hindsight it’s clear that he never had a dip in his support and that Trumps support has held steady between 25-30% both nationally and in most states since August.

[TexasFreeper2009]

Here’s what’s interesting to me

look at a chart of the 2012 republican nomination race

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html

Now look at how Romney’s support hovered steady between 20-25% nearly the entire race, while flavor of the months sprout up and then die off to be replaced immediately by another.

Now look at this years chart:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

And you will see that the same pattern is repeating this cycle. The only difference is that Trump is polling much better than Romney did (25-30%) vs Romney’s (20-25%).