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M Seward says:
AC Osborn,
I think you are right. The hemispheric difference has also been abnormally high through most of ‘the pause’. Typically it was about 0.1˚C a(lthough varying between 0.2 and 0.0˚C) with the SH being cooler than the NH. It has been around 0.3˚C for many years now which to me suggests that the SH will become the planets cooling driver. or maybe it is just the canary in the cage.
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Donald L. Klipstein says:
What will people be saying if global temperature holds fairly steady for the next 15-20 years?
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Donald– If global temps stay fairly steady for the next 15-20, scientists will have to say, “the CAGW hypothesis is dead.”
Under the rules of the Scietific Method, if hypothetical projections exceed reality by a statistically significant margin (2+ standard deviations) for a statistically significant duration (15+ years), the hypothesis is effectively disconfirmed.
Since CAGW has, for all intents and purposes, already met the criteria for disconfirmation, it should no longer be taken seriously.
In about 5~7 years, it’s highly likely the disparity between hypothetical projections vs. reality will exceed 3+ standard deviations for almost a quarter century, which is when the CAGW is laughed into oblivion.
The demise of the CAGW hypothesis is getting tantalizing close, which is why CAGW alarmists
are so frantically adding “adjustments” to HADCRUT4 and GISS raw temperature data to keep the disparity within 2 standard deviations of CAGW projections…
The Karl(2015) adjustment was the last straw. CAGW is dead.