If Israel concludes that they must launch a first strike -- a reasonable assumption, to be sure -- then don't they have to go atomic?
The Iranian sites are hardened, possibly beyond the IAF's ability to penetrate with conventional weapons. Plus, there are a lot of them...and the distance is great -- limiting the payload.
Further, there is no point in attempting the attack if you're not absolutely certain it will be successful. And the only way to assure success is to employ atomic weapons.
Accordingly, if Netanyahu says "Go!", we're probably going to see the first nuclear attack in 70 years.
Probable, and likely, but not necessarily an absolute. But note the distinction between *atomic* weapons and those that are thermonuclear. And I can think of at least one scenario in which they might get the job done with conventional weapons, and with which a great many Americans would certainly approve.
The Iranian sites are hardened, possibly beyond the IAF's ability to penetrate with conventional weapons. Plus, there are a lot of them...and the distance is great -- limiting the payload.
For the IAF/ air force. But they too now have their own Popeye Turbo ALCM cruise missiles, air-launched rather than submarine-tube launched. Shorter range, [320 KM] to be certain, but that is why they'd launch from well away from the target areas, after a naval [or other] first strike removed the local antiaircraft defences.
Further, there is no point in attempting the attack if you're not absolutely certain it will be successful. And the only way to assure success is to employ atomic weapons.
I concur, though there may be a couple of other ways. Even a rework of the former US Plan Crimson contingency plan declassified in 1974 might have an application. Re read my quote above from the late Moshe Dayan.
Accordingly, if Netanyahu says "Go!", we're probably going to see the first nuclear attack in 70 years.
I used to teach the history of nuclear warfare to USAF officer cadets. There have been four uses of atomic or nuclear weapons in warfare during the last hundred years, but they might not be what you think. Two in 1945, one in 1967, and one in 1982.