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To: sparklite2

I have seen a couple of studies done on accuracy of poll results AFTER elections.....It seems that something like 80% over estimate the margins for democrats while underestimating the margin for Republicans compared to the actual results...Makes u wonder...


56 posted on 08/22/2015 1:28:31 PM PDT by M-cubed ( Their hope is to find a way to pick a nominee who, if elected, would actually stay the course the w)
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To: M-cubed

I remember one election where Zogby nailed the 1996 presidential election (he came within a tenth of a point of the actual results). He also was the only pollster to predict the closeness of the 2000 election.

For reasons I’m not sufficiently interested in to dig into, the recent golden polling boy Nate Silver nonetheless called Zogby the “Worst Pollster in the World.”
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/worst-pollster-in-world-strikes-again/

I guess my point is that it is hard to get excited or defensive when people bash practitioners of an art that is so difficult to consistently get right. If it is so easy, let the bashers do it and report back to us.


68 posted on 08/22/2015 1:58:44 PM PDT by sparklite2 (Voting is acting white.)
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