I agree with grania. Trump is not going to quit this race.
Your examples from 2012 aren’t applicable to this race.
One by one:
Rick Perry: he was big in the polls before anyone knew him, just because he was governor of Texas. As soon as he opened his mouth in the debates he was finished.
My conclusion: no parallel to Trump.
Newt Gingrich: although an excellent debater and speaker, and able to slap down the debate moderators, he really never had much of a platform outside the debates. Also, Gingrich’s rise came because he was seen as a last-chance-to-stop-Romney, and didn’t rise strong on his own merits from the beginning.
My conclusion: although some similarities, not much of a parallel to Trump.
Herman Cain: although the obvious similarity here is a business background, Cain came out of nowhere and was almost universally unknown before his rise and completely unvetted as a public personality. Trump is well-known to the American public and has been for decades.
My conclusion: though neither held previous office, I still see no parallel here.
So yes, polls can change, obviously. The race can have dramatic shifts and turns, of course. But to look for parallels between 2016 and 2012 is to make the mistake generals often make: fighting the last war.
We agree.
A lot could happen.
Polls fluctuate.
The time period between now and the IA caucuses is an eternity in the political world. Much can happen between now and then.
It is possible DT could maintain or even increase his lead in the polls. It is also possible that he could be peaking too early.