I have come to the conclusion that Trump will win the nomination IF the GOPe does not screw him out of it.
I have also come to the conclusion that they WILL screw him out of the nomination.
Therefore, IMO, Trump should go third party NOW unless he can secure a promise that no shenanigans will be pulled by the GOPe. The promise must go into great detail to ferret out every sneaky way that delegates can be denied to Trump.
In return Trump could then pledge to forego a third party run if he loses the nomination fairly.
If the GOPe will not make such a promise then Trump needs to run third party.... they are going to find a way to screw him IMO so the only choice is third party.
If they refuse to promise fairness in all matters related to the nomination then their agenda will be clear for all to see.
We’ll know by November, about 3 months to go.
There are a bunch of primary registration deadlines and states with sore loser laws.