Apple Watch negative press feeding frenzy
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Posted on 07/15/2015 1:57:22 PM PDT by Swordmaker
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How are the sales of the Apple watch, just wondering?
Apple,w/o Jobs, flounders.
We know that from history.
Ask the sugar water salesman.
Disney still put out decent product and was profitable for a while after Walt Disney died. But it wasn’t the same and did not continue evolving.
Apple won’t escape this pattern either.
iWatch is a great example of a Disney World and Epcot as a theme park in contrast to EPCOT the actual business park/community/city that Walt envisioned.
I wonder if this was part of an effort by Slice Intelligence to short the stock. Happens all the time. Feed a media frenzy and profit from the drop in stock price.
I dropped raw meat in my piranha’s tank once. They just looked at it as it sank and left it alone. They preferred live goldfish. More sporting, apparently. I never could get them to bite my finger, either.
Interesting article. But it never said Slice’s projections were wrong. Are they?
Apple hasn't released any numbers, so Slice is just speculating.
Apple's next earnings report is 7/21/15.
Stay tuned.
There has been speculation (specifically, in forums like SeekingAlpha) that the options market has been heavily manipulated to profit from shorts on Apple stock. I doubt that anyone will investigate it– where's the money in that?
But I know some longtime options players who won't touch Apple.
if Watch makes the stock price rise, Watch is good. Otherwise...
I think it is a hard sell. Many people don’t even wear watches anymore. I will never buy one and I have every Apple product known to man. Plus to call on the death of Apple because a product is not doing as well as other products in ludicrous. I would love to see the first year I Phone sales....bet they were not anywhere near the I-Phone SIX sales.
a cell phone is essentially a pocket watch.
pocket watches are cool.
Actually you are right. My nephew is collecting pocket watches and has a nice case for them. It is a pretty cool collection and he wears them to school on occasions and all the kids love the different ones.
Like dropping a nekkid Tim Cook into a tank filled with lonely pajama boys!
The Motley Fool estimated that Apple Watch sold 5.5 million units through June 26th—the day that Apple started selling the Watch direct through the Apple Stores—at an average selling price of $505 each, actually using Slice Intelligence figures, after factoring world wide sales. That works out to revenues of $2,777,500,000, with a profit margin of 42% at $1,166,550,000. Hardly a flop.
Selling Watch Sales Data
Asymco — JUL 13, ’15 8:12 PM — by Horace DediuThere is no reliable information on Apple Watch sales. None of the analysts which follow Apple or the phone, computer or watch markets have any insight into this. The only source of information is Apple itself and they have made it clear that they don’t intend to provide watch sales data for competitive reasons. I did not and do not expect any information from Apple on watch sales. They have placed the product within the “Other” category specifically to make unit data hard to discern and have explained why they do so.
The only estimate we have heard of is from a company that has no track record in market research and relies entirely on sampling of email receipts. I urge extreme caution when dealing with this type of data. We don’t know how representative these receipts are and how they are sourced or sampled. The methodology is not only unclear but it’s one not practiced by any other analyst. You would think that receipt sampling would be a phenomenal source of information about a lot of other products and yet we hear nothing about how predictive it is for anything except this particular new product as claimed by a company which never made any such prior claims.
It’s also a sampling of (presumably) US-only customers at a time when the product is undergoing a gradual roll-out through multiple countries and multiple channels. Consider that if sales were constrained internationally then buyers would be trying to arbitrage through the US market, meaning there would be many e.g. Chinese buyers/brokers booking sales through US online stores inflating that channel’s initial volumes. Furthermore as physical retail stores begin to receive stock, online sales (which are what is sampled) should decline as buyers opt for the instant gratification (and the option to see the product in real life.) To see US-only online purchases drop after a period of pent-up demand and as store inventory becomes available is not interesting and says almost nothing about the product’s performance.
The only way to be thoughtful about this new category is to understand the broad transitions underway in mobile computing. We are witnessing a pivot in human-computer interaction as significant as the initial iPhone launch.
[As a rule, be very careful with the premise of data salesmanship. All data is false, some is useful. Data you have to pay for is less useful than data that has been peer reviewed.]
Apple Market Cap on the day before Steve Jobs died was ~$349 Billion.
Apple Market Cap today under current Management is $730.6 Billion.
Floundering? Really?
Yes. Very wrong. . . especially their flawed conclusions, made at the time when Apple was starting sales through their retail stores and opening in 10 more countries. They don't have access to the data they can use to properly base their conclusions on. In addition, their data were based on only 37% of the sales of the Apple Watch, those made only in the USA, when they were actually selling the bulk of Apple Watch sales outside of the US. One of the things Apple users appreciate is PRIVACY. . . and Slice works on abrogating users' privacy by mining their emails for receipts.
Even there, the data is bogus because Apple does not issue receipts until the product ships. Slice's charts show receipts through out April, from the 10th. NOT POSSIBLE, because Apple did not start shipping until April 27th. . . and there fore no charges were made and no receipts issued until the last week of April. The bulk of deliveries and charges would have started on May 6th. . . but Slice does not show that. I know because I made my order for two Apple Watches just after midnight on April 10 and all i got was an acknowledgement of my order being received. No receipt. My first receipt came when the first Apple Watch was shipped on May 5th. The second receipt came when the second Watch shipped in second week of June.
Multiple experts have weighed in on this including Forbes, The Motley Fool, Asymco, and Fortune have shot down Slice intelligence conclusions . . . some of them even using Slice's own raw data!
Garbage data In, Garbage data out. . . especially using flawed assumptions and misused statistical methodology.
Interesting non-response on your part.
AAPL certainly dropped by about 4% after this feeding frenzy hit and there are reports that some sold at the high, just before this started, and bought back in at the low of around 120. This is typical of what happens with FUD articles like the one engendered by Slice. Somebody made billions on the backs of little guys who panicked.
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