Replies

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Jun 23 1620 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 8 (NOAA Scale
G4).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 23-Jun 25 2015 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 23-Jun 25 2015

Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun 25
00-03UT 7 (G3) 5 (G1) 7 (G3)
03-06UT 8 (G4) 5 (G1) 7 (G3)
06-09UT 6 (G2) 4 6 (G2)
09-12UT 5 (G1) 4 6 (G2)
12-15UT 5 (G1) 3 6 (G2)
15-18UT 5 (G1) 3 5 (G1)
18-21UT 6 (G2) 5 (G1) 5 (G1)
21-00UT 5 (G1) 6 (G2) 5 (G1)

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain agitated with
G1-G2 (Minor - Moderate) for the remainder of today, day one (23 Jun),
in continued response to the 21 Jun CME. The 22 Jun CME is expected to
arrive late on day two (24 Jun) with G2 levels at onset, and will
likely enhance geomagnetic conditions to G3 (Strong) levels in the early
hours of day three (25 Jun), before conditions taper off over the day.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 23-Jun 25 2015

Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun 25
S1 or greater 99% 99% 95%

Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain
above S1 levels on days one through three (23-25 Jun). Further
enhancement, possibly to S3, is expected with the arrival of the latest
CME by day three (25 Jun).

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 23-Jun 25 2015

Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun 25
R1-R2 75% 75% 75%
R3 or greater 20% 20% 20%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to reach (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate)
radio blackout levels throughout the period (23-25 Jun) with a slight
chance for an isolated (R3-Strong) event.