Posted on 06/18/2015 11:42:52 AM PDT by conservativejoy
May 14 2015 at 2:04 PM | Updated May 14 2015 at 6:05 PM
The odds of the Trans-Pacific Partnership being done before the United States presidential election cranks up are little better than 50-50, which could push the deal into 2017, a veteran of Washington trade deal battles says.
United States lobbyists Barry Jackson, left, and Tony Podesta say the TPP has to be completed this year or it will be held up by the US presidential election. United States lobbyists Barry Jackson, left, and Tony Podesta say the TPP has to be completed this year or it will be held up by the US presidential election. Sean Davey
by Ben Potter The odds of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal being done before the United States presidential election cranks up are little better than 50-50, which could push it into 2017, a veteran of Washington trade deal battles says.
The 12-nation trade pact needs to be completed this year to avoid the febrile politics of the presidential election and Congressional elections, said Barry Jackson, former chief of staff to House Speaker John Boehner and adviser to President George W Bush.
President Barack Obama bills the TPP as a counter to China's rising power, but it is unpopular with pro-labour Democrats and populist Republicans, who fear American workers will be displaced and local laws subverted by clauses protecting foreign investors.
A precondition to final negotiations – "fast track" or trade promotion authority (TPA) for Mr Obama to sign a deal that Congress cannot amend – was being held up by Democrats in the Senate and was struggling to win over Republicans and Democrats in the House, Mr Jackson said.
It was rash to bet against something the US President and House Speaker both wanted, but the "rambunctious nature of the left and the right in both parties makes this much more difficult", Mr Jackson said.
Senate Democrats blocked a TPA vote earlier this week but have agreed to hold another vote, as long as there are also votes on trade-related labour assistance, currency manipulation by trade rivals and child labour.
"If the Senate cannot find a way forward for a couple of weeks you are looking at a June Senate vote. Today the votes don't exist in the House to pass this, and every day it hangs out members become more and more nervous about casting that vote, because of their own personal politics and primary situations," Mr Jackson said.
Negotiating countries would only put their best offers on the table once the President had fast-track authority, and these could contain surprises for the US domestic political process, he said.
"Timing is really critical, because if you see the TPP coming along in October or November you are smack in the middle not only of the presidential politics but in filing periods for House members and Senators and they'll be very very reluctant to proceed on this. Unfortunately you could see it pushed into 2017.
"I think (the odds are) a little better than 50-50 but it's not overwhelming odds that it gets done this year."
Mr Jackson said trade deals signed by the Bush administration in 2006 with Columbia, Panama and South Korea languished because of House opposition until the Republicans took control of the House in 2011 and "the President felt safe enough to sign it – and even then he was reluctant to do so because of the politics of his own party."
Sticking points for the TPP include pharmaceuticals, intellectual property, agriculture, investor-state protections for foreign investors and human trafficking.
"You hope it gets negotiated quickly but with 12 countries sitting around the table a lot of people have got to be heard before you can even have a vote."
Tony Podesta, a Washington lobbyist and Democratic fundraiser who is close to the Obama administration, said he remained very hopeful that the TPP would be completed by the end of the year. He said there were a lot of pro-fast-track Democrats but they wanted measures on currency manipulation, child labour and so on as well.
"The thought is that it's a 2015 priority, not something we can roll over into an election year," Mr Podesta said.
I’ll believe it when I see it.
Interesting! It will be done in the Cruz administration.
The GOPs love for money exceeds their hatred of Obama. What’s a politician to do?
If Cruz has anything to do with it, it’ll be a good deal for the U.S. :)
Given the provisions of TPP/TISA/TTIP already in the public sphere, I’ll take never in its current state. It’s bad enough that the entire process needs to be open, not just the 60 days of shouting against soundproof glass.
If there’s anything worth doing, it would be to dismantle the 1965 Immigration Act and all its programs. That would get rid of large chunks of abuse/fraud, while TPA would enable treaties that vastly increase it.
“something the US President and House Speaker both wanted”
LOL! What stupidity!
All the Dems and RINOs want it. The House Dems just want more. It’ll pass as soon as they get that ‘more’ in some bill.
The republicans are doing what they can to wreck the country.
House approves fast-track 218-208, sending bill to Senate
The House on Thursday took the first step toward resuscitating the White House’s trade agenda by passing legislation granting President Obama fast-track authority.
The bill now goes to the Senate, where the White House and GOP leaders are seeking to strike a deal with pro-trade Democrats.
The House vote was 218-208, with 28 Democrats voting for it.
With TPA, the Congress will oversee and give input to trade agreements during negotiation period.
They will have exactly two options, approve or disapprove, no amendments no input other than some insider options that will be for sale.
If a name like “Podesta” is supporting anything, we don’t want it.
If the Congress can add amendments to trade agreements after all parties (we are talking about other countries' governments here) have agreed on, it will take a long time to have any deal, or no country will start a process of negotiation with us at all. Imagine that they have to go back to their governments every time our Congress changes things.
No they won’t.
Congress is out of the equation once TPA passes, nothing under fast track has ever been defeated. In fact the President can already sign the trade agreement without Congressional approval. Congress then rubber stamps.
I think this whole concept needs to be rethought, redesigned and rebuilt from the ground up. With 100% transparency of course. If it can’t be done transparently then perhaps it doesn’t need to be done at all.
It is so bad they don’t want to deal with it during the election cycle!
I wouldn't be surprised if Bernie Sanders does a filibuster.
It would really help him with the Left.
You mean the lobbyists will have input.
#16 I wouldn’t be surprised if Bernie Sanders does a filibuster.
The one time I hope a communist wins!
Good luck with that Trade Agreements are negotiated in private because there can be no progress as long as one party is holding out to see what kind of deal another party is getting. As long as Congress is involved and being reported to by the President as required by TPA, I’m o.k. with it. I don’t like the process without TPA.
I feel your pain. I feel it too. But we must have hope. We are in it together. When a good candidate comes along and he asks for our help, we should give him full supports.
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