Posted on 06/18/2015 11:42:52 AM PDT by conservativejoy
May 14 2015 at 2:04 PM | Updated May 14 2015 at 6:05 PM
The odds of the Trans-Pacific Partnership being done before the United States presidential election cranks up are little better than 50-50, which could push the deal into 2017, a veteran of Washington trade deal battles says.
United States lobbyists Barry Jackson, left, and Tony Podesta say the TPP has to be completed this year or it will be held up by the US presidential election. United States lobbyists Barry Jackson, left, and Tony Podesta say the TPP has to be completed this year or it will be held up by the US presidential election. Sean Davey
by Ben Potter The odds of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal being done before the United States presidential election cranks up are little better than 50-50, which could push it into 2017, a veteran of Washington trade deal battles says.
The 12-nation trade pact needs to be completed this year to avoid the febrile politics of the presidential election and Congressional elections, said Barry Jackson, former chief of staff to House Speaker John Boehner and adviser to President George W Bush.
President Barack Obama bills the TPP as a counter to China's rising power, but it is unpopular with pro-labour Democrats and populist Republicans, who fear American workers will be displaced and local laws subverted by clauses protecting foreign investors.
A precondition to final negotiations – "fast track" or trade promotion authority (TPA) for Mr Obama to sign a deal that Congress cannot amend – was being held up by Democrats in the Senate and was struggling to win over Republicans and Democrats in the House, Mr Jackson said.
It was rash to bet against something the US President and House Speaker both wanted, but the "rambunctious nature of the left and the right in both parties makes this much more difficult", Mr Jackson said.
Senate Democrats blocked a TPA vote earlier this week but have agreed to hold another vote, as long as there are also votes on trade-related labour assistance, currency manipulation by trade rivals and child labour.
"If the Senate cannot find a way forward for a couple of weeks you are looking at a June Senate vote. Today the votes don't exist in the House to pass this, and every day it hangs out members become more and more nervous about casting that vote, because of their own personal politics and primary situations," Mr Jackson said.
Negotiating countries would only put their best offers on the table once the President had fast-track authority, and these could contain surprises for the US domestic political process, he said.
"Timing is really critical, because if you see the TPP coming along in October or November you are smack in the middle not only of the presidential politics but in filing periods for House members and Senators and they'll be very very reluctant to proceed on this. Unfortunately you could see it pushed into 2017.
"I think (the odds are) a little better than 50-50 but it's not overwhelming odds that it gets done this year."
Mr Jackson said trade deals signed by the Bush administration in 2006 with Columbia, Panama and South Korea languished because of House opposition until the Republicans took control of the House in 2011 and "the President felt safe enough to sign it – and even then he was reluctant to do so because of the politics of his own party."
Sticking points for the TPP include pharmaceuticals, intellectual property, agriculture, investor-state protections for foreign investors and human trafficking.
"You hope it gets negotiated quickly but with 12 countries sitting around the table a lot of people have got to be heard before you can even have a vote."
Tony Podesta, a Washington lobbyist and Democratic fundraiser who is close to the Obama administration, said he remained very hopeful that the TPP would be completed by the end of the year. He said there were a lot of pro-fast-track Democrats but they wanted measures on currency manipulation, child labour and so on as well.
"The thought is that it's a 2015 priority, not something we can roll over into an election year," Mr Podesta said.
Mass delusion, easier to promulgate than anyone ever believed.
I know he won't support giving power to Obama!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.