[SamAdams76]

With a world population of around 6 billion (subtracting small children and crazies) and an upgrade cycle of two years, we should be moving about 3 billion smartphones a year.

So at the 1.5 billion we are shipping now, we are probably about 50% saturated. Still some room to grow.

[TexasGator]

“and an upgrade cycle of two years”

I am still using my SII .... I think it is four years now.