Well, that’s certainly one way of looking at it.
How about two permanently antagonistic countries on this continent, certainly engaged in an arms race and possibly in repeated wars.
WWI and WWII fought here, for instance, as well as in Europe.
Huge improvement over what actually happened.
What your analysis does is simply assume that none of the bad things of the past 100 years would have happened had the South won, while ignoring the certainty that other bad things would have happened.
Right now I would not be under the boot of Fedzilla had the South won. Fact. It would be YOUR problem “up there”.
WWI and WWII fought here, for instance, as well as in Europe.
In Harry Turtledove's "Southern Victory" series of alternative-history novels, the South wins its independence in the 1860's and then fights a series of wars with the North. These include the World Wars, in which the South is aligned with Britain and the North with Germany.