“The pace of change is much more rapid now.”
We probably think that because we’re closer to it in time. But the industrial revolution of the 1800s and the mechanization of the early 1900s were even more of an upheaval with huge migrations from country to cities and workers having to adapt to the change from the natural cylce of farm work to regimented factory work, and nothing to fall back on. I don’t see that same level of upheaval going on today.
Regarding robots and increased automation, we’ve already undergone a massive version of that through outsourcing. The chinese and now vietnamese, cambodian bangladeshans, etc. have essentially acted as “human robots”. In terms of impact on our labor market, they’ve have the same effect as robots would have. Further actual automation, won’t cause any more dislocation than the “human robot” kind.
Regarding jobs... Humans have an infinite number of needs and desires. If you told someone back one hundred years ago that there would be tens of thousand of people working in nail salons, they would laugh at you. And there are many similar products and service that people didn’t envision 100 years ago. We extrapolate a future that is limited by each of our narrow knowledge, imagination, creativity. I have a tremendous amount of faith in humans’ ingenuity, resourcefulness and inventiveness. The guy that said that necessity is the mother of invention is absolutely right. And I would add to that desires.
Jobs are created by entrepreneurs - risk takers with imagination, initiative and courage driven by the profit motive who see unmet needs and desires and are willing to take a chance and try out their ideas. So, it’s very easy to create jobs - create a societal climate that unleashes and applauds entrepreneurship and profits and the optimism that that engenders.
We know how to do that - we used to be that. All it takes to get it back is a leader that believes in that vision and that can boldly paint it so the rest of us will believe it as well.
Another Reagan would do. Cruz is the closest we have.
What you describe is how things have worked since the start of the industrial revolution. As jobs have been eliminated, new and on average better jobs have been generated.
Unfortunately, past performance does not necessarily predict future performance.
I really, really hope you are right. However, I suspect that computers and automation are not simply an extension of past issues, but are a true game-changer.
You are quite right about entrepeneurs and innovators. They will always find some use for themselves, as will highly intelligent people.
But most people simply are not natural entrepeneurs or innovators, and 50% of the population is of below average intelligence.