Posted on 02/25/2015 10:52:34 AM PST by Colofornian
Sunday -- March 1-- begins the 25th annual recognition of Irish-American recognition month as recognized by the United States Congress. Why, St. Patrick's Day parades have been going on in Boston for over 275 years to the delight of crowds' cheers and whistles.
And, for these past 40 days, it appears a distinct type of whistle-blowing has entered the New England landscape: Whistle-blowers of alleged East Coast NFL shenanigans have been turned up to high volume. The pursuit? To discover if any roguish tricksterism by Brady & his Boston-based Patriotic Leprauchans these past eight years might be evidenced by the stats.
In fact, the latest turn in the unfolding drama is late last week when the Colts General Manager unveiled that the Colts had alerted the NFL about possible Patriot shenanigans before its January 18 playoff game! (And, 'twas e'en a hint of the NFL possibly running a sting on the Pats!) See: Theres a glaring contradiction in NFLs Deflategate timeline ['Ballghazi' Pats' sting?] for more details!)
How might a statistical analyst give his best case that leprechauns are indeed at large in New England?
Well, what if I told you that the Patriots' defense fumbled the ball...
...more often in (take your pick which of these following seasons) 2003, 2002, 2001, 1999 than the Patriots' running backs did rushing the ball in 2007 even including all three playoff games?
...Or their defense fumbled the ball as often in 2001 as the Patriots' running backs did rushing the ball for the entire 2007 and 2008 seasons combined (35 games including three playoff games)?!
...Or their defense fumbled the ball as much combining regular seasons 1999-2003 as did the Patriots running backs' rushing the ball combining regular seasons 2007-2008 and 2010-2011?
(Now you know what the job description of a New England leprechaun is every pre-game!)
Beyond that, just compare the 2006-2007 seasons and broader patterns (either 2000-2014, or 2003-2014)
Category | 2006 NE Season | 2007 NE Season |
Overall fumbles | 31 (27 regular season) | 17 (14 regular season) |
Rushing fumbles by Patriot running backs | 7 (19 games, including 3 playoffs) | 0 (19 games, including 3 playoffs) |
Fumble rate per game | Avg team: 1.5 vs. NE's 1.6 | Avg team: 1.6 vs. NE's 0.8 (Less fumbles by half!) Note: Even indoor based teams averaged 1.55 fumbles per game) |
Brady's Completion % | 61.8% | 68.9% |
Fumbles by Teams Per Game | ||||
2003-2006 NE | 2003-2006 Other 31 teams | 2007-2014 NE | 2007-2014 Other 23 Outdoor teams | 2007-2014 Indoor-based teams (8) |
1.46 | 1.6 | 0.96 [this is improvement of 1 less fumble every 2 games vs. previous NE teams] | 1.46 [this means one more fumble every 2 games than NE] | 1.29 [this means one more fumble every 3 games than NE] |
So, for certain NFL attorneys who may want to delve into local Boston lore, what pot o' gold nuggets of evidence seems to suggest shenanigans on the loose going back about 8 years?
Note: before assessing chart below, it might be of help to review Warren Sharp's original chart on 19 of these players below:
* Jan. 28, 2015 update: New England Patriots Fumble More Often When Playing for Other Teams)
* See also: January 22, 2015: The New England Patriots Prevention of Fumbles is Nearly Impossible and...
Indicators of 'Deflategate' & 'Ballghazi' as Urban Legend |
Red Flags in Pat Stats Suggesting Shenanigans |
1. Warren Sharp's analytics case of embellished fumbles (what was he thinking or not thinking anyway?) Sharp treated all fumbles as equal & relevant research. But, alas, they aren't. Simply put, if a team is accused of doctoring their own footballs, & if special teams use a common pool of balls providing no competitive advantage, then special teams' fumbles are irrelevant & need special segmenting from all analytical charts. This impacted Sharp's charts how? One Sharp chart lists 19 players who were either former Patriots or played elsewhere prior to coming to New England. These 19 lost 124 overall fumbles. The problem is three dozen fumbles occurred during returning a punt or kick. (That's 29% of fumbles in list). | 1. The however to this is it's an equal-opportunity application mistake: On the other side of the ledger those tracking Pat fumbles 2007-2014 9 of 39 fumbles were likewise special teams (23% vs. 29% on other side). In other words: Most of fumbles removed from the balance sheet prove to be a wash. All it does is to heighten the number of touches on each comparison side per fumble. It is true -- for sake of only including 'relevant' fumbles as it applies to this case study -- that Sharp's "44 touches per fumble" & "73 touches per fumble is a myth. The actual touches are much higher on both comparative sides. Also, when playoff stats are added to Sharp's charts along with one additional measurement RB Kevin Faulk it fleshes out an even a greater measurement: The lopsided touches per fumble ratio Sharp arrived at 98 67 among those 19 players & 107-53 among the five players with 300+ Patriot touches...grows to 145-87 among 20 players & an astounding 190-70 split among 8 players with 274+ touches (Wes Welker, Laurence Maroney, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Faulk, Danny Woodhead, Sammy Morris, LeGarrette Blount, & Randy Moss) |
1a. How did (1) above play out? Wes Welker, for example, returned punts/kickoffs for both Pats & other teams: Therefore, half of his Pat fumbles were irrelevant to case study & ALL of his non-Patriot fumbles were likewise irrelevant. Same with Brandon Tate re: his non-Patriot fumbles (all irrelevant). One would think that including Tate's 11 fumbles in only 35 touches would greatly skew the results to work against Sharp's hypothesis. A dozen other fumbles were likewise removed on the non Pats' side: (Amendola, 5; Moss, 3; Stallworth, 2; + Jordan & Gaffney, 1 apiece). | 1a. How the above played out on Pat stat side '07-14: Welker returned punts & kicks for the Pats, too: So half of his fumbles were special teams' related. Amendola & Morris also had each had a special teams' fumbles removed. And tho Sharp didn't include Kevin Faulk in his chart because Faulk only played for the Pats, Faulk is perhaps THE most interesting case study, but not for special teams' sake (Faulk had one special teams' fumble removed from his stat total; beyond that, he only fumbled once in his last five seasons with the Pats - & it was a reception, not a rush. By comparison, in the alleged pre-Ballghazi era, Faulk fumbled it 24 times (4 special teams) over eight seasons: 13 rushing, 7 after catches. IoW, he averaged 1 'relevant' fumble every 35 touches thru 2006; suddenly it mushroomed to 1 'relevant' fumble every 433 touches 2007-2011. IoW, Kevin Faulk himself is the face -- the poster boy -- for 'ballghazi shenanigans'! |
2. 'Relevant' fumbles & fumble ratios: When the raw fumbles #s are scrubbed & only 'relevant ones remain, 8 of 19 players Sharp analyzed don't match the we fumbled more wearing non-Patriot shirts narrative: Danny Woodhead, Fred Taylor, Brandon Lloyd, Brandon Lafell, Deion Branch & Lamont Jordan all have similar fumble ratio numbers no matter which team they've played for; + Wes Welker, Randy Moss when properly stripped of those special teams' fumbles even showed significantly more of a penchant to fumble when playing for the Patriots. | 2. Collective stats for 11 Patriots 2007-2014 show only 1 fumble every 472 touches! While some of the Patriot fumble miserliness 07-14 are indeed attributable to guys who tend not to fumble often (beyond special teams at least) Welker, Woodhead, & Laurence Maroney. Yet when the other 15 Rbs & Wide-outs are surveyed, 'twas an almost impossible scenario to look @ the stats of 11 of them & realize these 11 combined for almost 1900 touches between them during those 8 seasons, & yet they fumbled only four times: 1889 touches & only four collective fumbles by Green-Ellis, Faulk, Branch, Taylor, Amendola, Lloyd, Lafell, Jordan, Gaffney, Evans, Stallworth that's only one fumble per 472 touches |
3. A fumble-by-fumble review turns up that the players most responsible for Pat fumbles were quarterbacks! NFL Fumble Pie is cut up into 5 pieces: Fumbles by Qbs, Rbs, Receivers, Special teams, & the occasional post-interception fumble. For 1999-2006, Pats Qbs made 45% of fumbles; that was reduced to 33% 2007-2014. Sharp (& others including myself) don't want to include Qbs for analysis purposes because they already tend to have an untucked ball in most play situations. The key point here, though, is between 07-14, Pats Qbs + special teams accounted for over half of all team fumbles, leaving less room to shenanigize anything | 3. The so-called flip side of this argument is actually the same argument: Yes, review the fumbles to see who was actually making them, or rather, no longer coming even close to making them. How is it that the Patriot Rbs averaged less than 3 fumbles per season 2007-2014? How is it than when you include playoff games, the Pats average a rushing fumble by a RB or wide-out about once every six games? How did the Pats go through '07 19 games including playoffs without its Rbs managing to fumble the ball on a rushing play? (Kevin Faulk had one fumble but even that came on pass he caught) |
4. If you're trying to explain why Brady had his sudden 2007 completion % surge, look no further than Randy Moss. Moss had previously had two 100+ reception years; his new presence in '07 accounted for 98 receptions. | 4. Indeed, personnel are very important considerations. And it's personnel breakdown charts like the one below a corrective revision of Warren Sharp's listing 19 players that makes the 'Ballghazi' case. (Note: added Kevin Faulk as a 20th player because Faulk had over 430 touches post 2006 & that can be readily compared to his 1999-2006 Patriot seasons where he had 700 touches) that also provides a face to this ghost of Ballghazi. |
Fumbles-per-touch analytics | ||
STATISTICAL BOUNDARIES | COLOFORNIAN'S ANALYTICAL BOUNDARIES | WARREN SHARP'S ANALYTICAL BOUNDARIES |
Are only 'relevant' fumbles -- non-special teams' fumbles -- included in fumbles per touch comparisons? | YES | NO (Sharp's are accumulative) |
Are playoff stats included in 'relevant' fumbles by touch comparisons? | YES | NO (Sharp uses only season stats despite very controversy arising in playoff context) |
Are pre-2007 Patriots stats included in 'relevant fumbles by touch comparisons? | YES | NO (Sharp didn't include Kevin Faulk as he only played for NE; & he didn't use Deion Branch, Ben Watson & Laurence Maroney pre-2007 Pat stats: Yet these stats are relevant for comparison sake) |
Left side: NE PLAYER: 07-14 | Right side: NON-NE PLAYER + NE PLAYERS PRE-2007 | |||||||||
NAME | RECEPTIONS | RUSHES | TOUCHES | 'RELEVANT' FUMBLES* | 'RELEVANT' FUMBLES PER TOUCH | RECEPTIONS | RUSHES | TOUCHES | 'RELEVANT' FUMBLES | 'RELEVANT' FUMBLES PER TOUCH |
Wes Welker | 741 | 21 | 762 | 6 relevant (other 6 on special teams) | 1 per 127 | 237 | 1 | 238 | 0 relevant (all 13 on special teams) | Less than 1 per 238 |
Laurence Maroney | 45 | 644 | 689 | 5 | 1 per 138 | 5 | 67 | 72 | 3 | 1 per 24 |
BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 31 | 557 | 588 | 0 | Less than 1 per 588 | 28 | 517 | 545 | 5 | 1 per 109 |
Kevin Faulk | 181 | 252 | 433 | 1 relevant (1 special team) | 1 per 433 | 301 | 700 | 1001 | 20 relevant (4 special teams) | 1 per 50 |
Danny Woodhead | 104 | 285 | 389 | 3 | 1 per 130 | 160 | 95 | 255 | 2 | 1 per 128 |
Sammy Morris | 52 | 335 | 387 | 3 relevant (1 special team) | 1 per 129 | 117 | 402 | 519 | 8 | 1 per 65 |
LaGarrette Blount | 6 | 275 | 281 | 3 | 1 per 94 | 27 | 491 | 518 | All 10 relevant | 1 per 52 |
Randy Moss | 271 | 3 | 274 | All 5 relevant | 1 per 55 | 765 | 23 | 788 | 8 relevant by comparison (3 special teams) | 1 per 98 |
Deion Branch | 130 | 0 | 63 | 0 | Less than 1 per 63 | 452 | 11 | 463 | 1 relevant (2 special teams by comparison) | 1 per 463 |
Fred Taylor | 4 | 108 | 112 | 1 | 1 per 112 | 293 | 2555 | 2848 | All 26 relevant by comparison | 1 per 110 |
Danny Amendola | 90 | 2 | 92 | 0 relevant (1 special team) | Less than 1 per 92 | 196 | 12 | 208 | 5 relevant by comparison (5 special teams) | 1 per 42 |
Ben Watson | 91 | 1 | 92 | 2 | 1 per 46 | 210 | 1 | 211 | 6 | 1 per 35 |
Brandon Lloyd | 86 | 0 | 86 | 0 | Less than 1 per 86 | 325 | 1 | 326 | 4 | 1 per 82 |
Brandon Lafell | 83 | 2 | 85 | 1 | 1 per 85 | 171 | 7 | 178 | 2 | 1 per 89 |
Lamont Jordan | 0 | 80 | 80 | 1 | 1 per 80 | 163 | 856 | 1019 | 7 relevant (1 special team) | 1 per 146 |
Jabar Gaffney | 78 | 0 | 78 | 0 | Less than 1 per 78 | 394 | 9 | 403 | 3 relevant (1 special team) | 1 per 134 |
Heath Evans | 8 | 48 | 56 | 0 | less than 1 per 56 | 59 | 121 | 180 | 3 | 1 per 60 |
Donte Stallworth | 55 | 1 | 56 | 0 | Less than 1 per 56 | 280 | 20 | 300 | 3 relevant (2 special teams) | 1 per 100 |
Brandon Tate | 24 | 6 | 30 | 1 | 1 per 30 | 31 | 4 | 35 | 0 relevant (11 special teams by comparison) | Less than 1 per 35 |
TOTALS | 2080 | 2620 | 4700 | 32 | 1 in 145 | 4214 | 5993 | 10107 | 116 | 1 in 87 |
8 Players' collective totals who had 274+ touches for Patriots | 1431 | 2372 | 3803 | 20 | 1 per 190 | Non-NE or Early NE | 1640 | 2296 | 56 | 1 per 70 |
(Yeah, what is it with these Patriots? They bump up vs. these same pushovers year in, year out for six of their games...then whoever they are "in cozy" with ... schedule-wise...ensures they get a bunch of THE worst extra-division teams on top of that...)
Prime examples: 2013...when they played the 2-14 Texans & the 4-12 Bucs, 4-12 Falcons, 4-12 Browns...and NONE of the teams in their own division even had winning records that year...
2008...2-14 Chiefs, 2-14 Rams, 4-12 Seahawks, 5-11 Raiders & even 3 Western teams they played that year didn't have winning records (over half of their sched didn't)
2012...10 teams on their sched had losing records, including the 2-14 Jaquars...the Pats couldn't even beat 5-11 Cards that year...
In their 2011 Super Bowl appearance year, the Pats didn't even face a team that wound up with a winning record til November...didn't face a second team that wound up with a winning record til December...so wins over 5 teams with winning records that year -- including the playoffs...qualifies them for the SB? (No wonder they lost it!)
2007 and 2014 were about the only seasons they faced stiff schedules & even then more extra-division pushovers (3-13 Bucs in 09; 4-12 Bengals in '10)
So...I take it from the above is that your argument is the Pats essentially play in the "JV division" of the NFL...so no wonder they don't fumble as often?
...your mom I bet she misses you...
These 7 words were the only part of your post making any sense.
So thank you for the reminder...I'll call her.
Actually, the Patriots have been equal-opportunity cheaters. It doesn't even take "a winning streak" for them to rely on cheating:
LA Times, 4 weeks ago: Patriots' rule-bending goes back decades, to 'snow plow' game in 1982
(The Pats were 2-14 in 1982)!
Self-correction: Didn't face a team with a winning record til Oct. 30...a 2nd team with a winning record til November...& a 3rd team with a winning record til December...
(a) Brady's been playing vs. all those inner-division pushovers for 15 years! When you have it that easy, ya better have some stats to show for it!
(You yourself said in post #35: "...they play in the saddest, worst division in football. During this time period the Bills are the 4th worst team, the Dolphins have a losing record: 107-117, and the Jets have barely escaped break even going 113-111. Theyve won the AFC East outright 12 out of the past 14 seasons."
(b) It could be that the Pats have had a new physician "operating" along the sidelines since 2007.
(We hear he's quite good at his specialty of doctoring footballs! : ) )
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3259112/posts?page=31#31
Sadly though your whole deflategate ballghazi fumble fallacy is all based on the premise that 12 footballs were deflated which they were not. the only ball two pounds under was the ball that was in the unsupervised possession of the Indy colts. But you’ve ignored this fact In all your grandiose self absorbed spreadsheet of wasted time.
Well, hey, Edzo...you've earned a personal spreadsheet! (Congrats!)
And ya know, God loves you so much that you're never a "waste of time"...You personally are just that important! (No /s on this!)
Edzo4's claims 'realified' | ||
Edzo4's dubious claims... | My response... | Yet even Edzo4's cited source says... |
"Sadly though your whole deflategate ballghazi fumble fallacy is all based on the premise that 12 footballs were deflated which they were not." | (Sorry, I never -- nor have I seen anybody -- claim that "12 footballs were deflated"; the claim has been out there for over a month now -- that 11 of the dozen balls were underinflated (not deflated)...and guess what? (These claims didn't originate with me) | "The NFL is investigating the Patriots after 11 of 12 game balls they used in their 45-7 win over the Indianapolis Colts were found to be underinflated." Per Report: Only one Pats football was badly underinflated |
"...the only ball two pounds under was the ball that was in the unsupervised possession of the Indy colts. But youve ignored this fact" | (Well, so what if there was only a single ball that was a full "two pounds under"? And that the other 10 underinflated balls were less than that...what difference does that make?) | "Also, MANY [My note: not ALL] of the footballs bore the initials of AFC title game referee Walt Anderson. However, he was in charge of two other Patriots games this season, and the footballs from those games were kept in circulation, meaning it is possible footballs approved for other games wound up in the AFC Championship Game." Per Report: Only one Pats football was badly underinflated [My note: IoW, since Anderson initialed balls from two previous Pat games earlier in the season, it's possible that some balls from those earlier games were possibly re-introduced into the playoff game without having gone thru Anderson's specific pre-game inspection] |
"...the only ball two pounds under was the ball that was in the unsupervised possession of the Indy colts. But youve ignored this fact." | Well, now that you've confused the entire scenario, it's difficult to say for sure what you're referencing that I've supposedly "ignored" -- but if I was reading this post of yours & went to your links...I'd come away with that you're somehow attempting to imply that only a single ball was underinflated...when even your own cited source says... (see -->) | Per Report: Only one Pats football was badly underinflated [What? Was there really some need to "deflate" that word "badly"?]...the article itself said: "Rapoport reported that the league found MANY of the footballS [My note: plural] were "just a few ticks UNDER THE MINIMUM of 12.5 PSI. |
What?
Do I really have to define "many footballs" for you per the very article you cited?
Do I really have to mention footballS is plural for you per the very article you cited?
Do I really have to tell you that ..."many footballs...under the minimum of 12.5 psi" is against the standards & rules of the NFL???
What? You gonna start getting on refs' cases for calling offsides? ('C'mon, Zebra! He was 'only' a few steps over the line of scrimmage!')
The NFL has already provided leeway: The rule says there's a full POUND of leeway [12.5 to 13.5].
And now you want to somehow...
...retroactively...
...arbitrarily...
...with full-blown arrogancy that the Pats can just well do as they damn well please with their own superimposed self-authority...
...remove these NFL standards and replace them with own self-designations? (And ONLY for the Patriots?)
Really?
Hey...just tell those Patriots, then, to "redraw" the line of scrimmage a few inches or a few feet wherever they want!
Tell those Pats to expand the seconds ("a few ticks") it takes to get off a play 83% of the time! (That'll reduce those delay of game penalties!)
Tell those Pats who are being substituted for that they actually now have a "few ticks" longer to get off the field...and that they won't be called for as many "illegal substitution" penalties...
All because Patriot fans seem to indicate that their team is so mighty they can now retroactively, arbitrarily, and arrogantly dictate to the league what the exact "ticks" should be on not only this rule, but ALL of the NFL rules!!!
I’m flattered but you really need to get a life, seriously. Seek profeessional help. Fact remains the only ball two pounds under was the one the colts had all other balls were checked by the refs. Other balls were a tick under and as has been proven over and over and over again on the multiple threads you have posted about ballghazi that a 1 lb change is psi would occur in a difference of 40 degrees if the NFL wants the balls at a certain psi at a certain temp they should change the rule. It does not as you would wish and so desperately try to “prove” with your hours of wasted effort and spreadsheets they cheated. And by your own admission a game in bad weather caused a thousand percent increase in the fumble rate. So GFYS I’m gonna go watch the replay greatest quaterback ever win his fourth superbowl cause of the worst call ever by a Superbowl coach. Also Pete Carroll coached for new england how about a whole new conspiracy theory with spreadsheets facts and diograms of how new england hired Carroll got him to Seattle just so he could make the bad call. That ought to jeep you busy for days.
Well, that sucks.
You should have searched harder for somebody to say it would occur in a difference of something higher than that...
'Twas 51 degrees at gametime...and the balls were discovered well before enough time on the clock to have gone by for that kind of temp drop [these games are 90 minutes per half ya know]
Other balls were a tick under...
(Oh, so last post you tried convincing us only ONE ball was under...no mention of these other 10 balls...and now on this post -- when your own sources are tossed in your face -- you finally concede this fact, eh?)
Ya know, illegal contact by a defender is only a "tick" longer than what is legal...
Many holds only become actual restraint because either the blocker or defender holds on to the opponent a few ticks longer...and it moves from just a bad blocking technique or bad defensive posture to an actual hold because once restraint kicks in, it's an actual hold...
But, hey, your extended defense is that those Patriot holds were...
...only a few ticks over...
...those delay of game calls on the Patriots?
...(Just a few ticks over before Brady got the play off)
...Illegal contact?
...Just a tick longer on the receiver as he was going out for the pass...
...Illegal substitution flag?
...Naw, the guy in the game being replaced hung around "a few ticks" longer -- but it was only a "few ticks"
(Hey, and while you're at it, the next time your fave Pat is called for either offensive or defensive pass interference, just turn to whoever you're watching the game with and say, "It was only a 'few ticks' early...that ref should have left that flag in his pocket.")
Same with your Pat punt coverage...Hey, if they happen to hit the punt returner a tick or two before he actually touches the ball...so what? (Was only a tick or two)
You’ve obviously never played sports. In wrestling and boxing you weigh in before the fight what you weigh during the fight is not measured. So as long as the boxer was a middle weight on the scale the day before the fight and a heavy weight during the fight it doesn’t matter its not against the rules and not cheating. The patriots followed the rules end of story. I mean its not like they were the Mormons they didn’t like the fact that if you have more than one wife you are cheating so they made up their own rules so they could pretend they weren’t cheating on their wife.
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