Ugh! My brain has never been wired to understand probability and statistics—it switches off just like when I try to read an IRS publication! All I can say is I watched the Pats crush the Colts, and it seems to me that 1-2 psi difference in the footballs could not possibly account for the Colts’ abysmal performance. Add 7 or even 14 points to their score and you still have a convincing win for the Pats.
I think the Pats will beat the Seahawks, but then we almost turned off the Seattle-Green Bay game because it appeared to be sown up. I’m not putting any money on it, but will enjoy the heck out of what I hope will be a good game. That’s what makes the game so exciting: the seemingly impossible sometimes happens. As a long time Bills fan, I know you don’t shut the game off until it is officially over—as illustrated by Buffalo’s 30+ point comeback against Houston years ago.
I don’t know if the Pats cheated or not. My understanding is that the investigation is ongoing. They may get fined or lose a draft pick, but as for the Super Bowl none of that matters. The balls are handled differently, and the whole world will be watching. It should be a heck of a contest!
I don’t think you can take too much from the Pats demolition of the Colts in regards predicting how they’ll do against the Seahawks.
The Colts don’t match up well, either playing style, or coaching to the Patriots, (or playing outdoors), and have been completely non-competitive in recent years.
The Seahawks have some tools to exploit weaknesses that the Pats will have to address, along with other strengths which counter the typical adjustments. Completely different matchup.