Is that assumption correct? If it is not then the while issue is moot.
Turn over ratio is one of the most important aspects of winning a game. The Patriots have their players PRACTICE holding the ball while their teammates try to strip the ball from their grip.
This isn’t a random process. BTW the Patriots put the ball on the ground a number of times against the Ravens but recovered their own fumbles.
Normalcy is probably a good starting point to assume but by just plotting the data it can be eyeballed. Don’t know if this is valid but it is interesting. Even if the distribution is odd shaped if they are way down in one tail it is interesting.