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NOAA's actual report says it is "More UNLIKELY" that 2014 was the warmest year, "than likely":
Noaa ^

Posted on 01/17/2015 11:11:46 AM PST by Bulwinkle

LOL!!!!!!

NOAA's actual report says it is "More UNLIKELY" that 2014 was the warmest year, "than likely":

Calculating the Probability of Rankings for 2014

...

Using a Monte Carlo approach (Arguez et al, 2013), NCDC considered the known uncertainty of the global land and ocean annual temperature in the 2014 annual ranking. Taking into account the uncertainty and assuming all years (1880-2014) in the time series are independent, the chance of 2014 being

Warmest year on record: 48.0% One of the five warmest years: 90.4% One of the 10 warmest years: 99.2% One of the 20 warmest years: 100.0% Warmer than the 20th century average: 100.0% Warmer than the 1981-2010 average: 100.0% NCDC follows these conventions to categorize the confidence associated with assertions made with respect to ranks used in the report:

PROBABILITY DESCRIPTOR > 99% "almost certain" 90% - 99% "very likely" 66.7% - 90% "likely" 50% - 66.7% "more likely than not" 33.3% - 50% "more unlikely than likely" 10% - 33.3% "unlikely" 1% - 10% "very unlikely" < 1% "almost certainly not"

(Excerpt) Read more at ncdc.noaa.gov ...


TOPICS: Chit/Chat
KEYWORDS: ecoterrorism; ecoterrorists; globalwarming; globalwarminghoax; greennewdeal; lying
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To: Chode
They argued that the overall Earth's temperature went up 1/100 of a single degree from 58.45 to 58.46.

And because of that.... were all going to die, doom and gloom it the end of the world rubbish.

These clowns are looking for any lie to push their justification for the “carbon” tax.

It would all be laughable if the Republicans did not have such despicable weaklings like John Boehner and Mitch McConnell leading the congress.

21 posted on 01/17/2015 12:47:08 PM PST by Enlightened1
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To: Bulwinkle

Yes, but, how does that make you feel ?


22 posted on 01/17/2015 12:49:36 PM PST by justa-hairyape (The user name is sarcastic. Although at times it may not appear that way.)
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To: Bulwinkle; 11B40; A Balrog of Morgoth; A message; ACelt; Aeronaut; AFPhys; AlexW; alrea; ...
Oh, so THAT's what they meant!

DOOMAGE!

Global Warming PING!

You have been pinged because of your interest in environmentalism, alarmist wackos, mainstream media doomsday hype, and other issues pertaining to global warming.

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23 posted on 01/17/2015 1:04:20 PM PST by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (Je suis Charlie, you miserable Islamist throwbacks!)
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To: BenLurkin

....and John Kerry while they are at it.


24 posted on 01/17/2015 1:05:40 PM PST by gov_bean_ counter (Romans 1:22 Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools)
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To: Hot Tabasco

But TWC has pulled all the average annual temperature charts from their websites so you can’t refute the claims.


25 posted on 01/17/2015 1:08:34 PM PST by gov_bean_ counter (Romans 1:22 Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools)
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To: Dr. Bogus Pachysandra
I believe the margin is higher and they choose the numbers to match their pre-determined outcome.
The latest trend against Citizens is to lower the amount of gain to a more manageable lie. Which
is also a lie and does not even mater.

So what if we're warming, it's cooling that Kills due to famine and temperature.
How will they heat the earth in 20-200-years when it's cooling more rapidly?
Answer: Just die already.

The real cause of GW is the lie. And we cannot control either.

26 posted on 01/17/2015 1:12:29 PM PST by MaxMax (Pay Attention and you'll be pissed off too! FIRE BOEHNER, NOW!)
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To: Enlightened1
100%
27 posted on 01/17/2015 4:28:13 PM PST by Chode (Stand UP and Be Counted, or line up and be numbered - *DTOM* -w- NO Pity for the LAZY - 86-44)
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To: Bulwinkle

We just came through the coldest Summer in over 30 years. I question the veracity of the statement that 2014 was one of the warmest years on record. The two statements are not logically compatible.


28 posted on 01/17/2015 5:16:02 PM PST by vetvetdoug
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To: Bulwinkle

What would happen to a NOAA employee or department if they came up with a study that showed no warming or even cooling?


29 posted on 01/17/2015 7:41:44 PM PST by Proud2BeRight
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To: vetvetdoug

California had a fantastic summer. Cooling locally, warming globally.


30 posted on 01/17/2015 11:12:43 PM PST by TauntedTiger (On the outside looking in!)
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To: Bulwinkle
Warmest year on record: 48.0% One of the five warmest years: 90.4% One of the 10 warmest years: 99.2% One of the 20 warmest years: 100.0% Warmer than the 20th century average: 100.0% Warmer than the 1981-2010 average: 100.0% NCDC follows these conventions to categorize the confidence associated with assertions made with respect to ranks used in the report: PROBABILITY DESCRIPTOR > 99% "almost certain" 90% - 99% "very likely" 66.7% - 90% "likely" 50% - 66.7% "more likely than not" 33.3% - 50% "more unlikely than likely" 10% - 33.3% "unlikely" 1% - 10% "very unlikely" < 1% "almost certainly not"

Looks like they are using multiple guess "science" these days...

31 posted on 01/18/2015 4:15:53 AM PST by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
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