These days there are numerous Alcatraz swims every year where they’ll have better than a hundred participants at a time. The vast majority make it to land just fine. I’ve provided kayak escort for these events many times. They invited us because we can mix with the swimmers (no prop). If someone did pull out, they would hang onto the kayak and we’d use the paddle to signal the Zodiac to come in and pick them up, then the boat would go back to the outside of the pack. But the vast majority made it to land. Not too hard for me to believe these escaped cons, with flotation, could have made it too.
#4 The vast majority make it to land just fine......
I am guessing some are swept out to sea : )