[campaignPete R-CT]

you are making beginner mistakes!

GB could be out regardless of which game they lose ...

PHI 11-5 GETS DIV
DAL 11-5 lost to INDY

DET 11-5 GETS DIV
GB 11-5 lost to DET OR TB

DALLAS GETS THE WILDCARD OVER GB IN the above. (Due to Common games over GB.)

if DAL 5th loss is to Redskins (a conf game), then GB is the wildcard. (Due to conf record over DAL.)

[campaignPete R-CT]

THUR UPDATE! TIEBREAKERS

NFC TIEBREAK	PHI	DAL	GB	DET	SEA	ARIZ
PHIL	. .-	PHIL-4	GB-1,3	DET-3	SEA-1,3	AZ-1,3
DAL	PHIL-4	. .-	gb-L3 DAL-4	DET-3	DAL-1, SEA-3	AZ-1,L3,SOV
GB	GB-1,3	gb-L3 DAL-4	. .-	DET-3	SEA-1,3	gb-L4 az-Lsov
DET	DET-3	DET-3	DET-3	. .-	SEA-4	AZ-1
SEA	SEA-1,3	DAL-1, SEA-3	SEA-1,3	SEA-4	. .-	SEA-1,2
ARIZ	AZ-1,3	AZ-1,L3,SOV	gb-L4 az-Lsov	AZ-1	SEA-1,2	... -

1- ...HEAD-TO-HEAD
2- ...DIV REC
3- ...CONF REC
4- ...COMMON GAMES
SOV = Strength of Victory
XXX = no tie is possible.
explained in detail ELSEWHERE in this thread
The bold ones are clinched tiebreakers.
Also, lower case indicates a lead, but not a clinch.
example GB vs DAL:
gb-L3 dal-L4
MEANS DAL leads in Common games. GB leads in CONF record. ATL VS N.O.: ATL-2. Atlanta has clinched tiebreaker over Saints due to DIV record