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Let’s say that Bush or Christie will lose. That’s a fair assumption. But Who on the right will your third party nominate? And how will that math work?

None of this is actually happening yet, so it's all just speculation. Too many Tea Partiers are still hoping for change from within, and are doomed to disappointment. But I wouldn't worry about nominating anyone yet for a presidential campaign. I'd worry about a new conservative party fielding and supporting congressional candidates and state/local slates. There is currently no issue as morally clear or as vivid as slavery, the issue which triggered the birth of the old Republican Party in 1854. Today's conservative issues have been demonized and labeled extreme by both the Democrats and today's Republican Party. Take a couple of years to forcefully advocate strong, unashamed conservative positions on those issues, outlining the differences between the new party and both the Democrats and the Republicans. Both political parties defy the will of the majority of Americans when it comes to our open border policy and amnesty for illegal aliens. Both parties are in open collusion about the surveillance state which has come into existence in the wake of 9/11. Start there. The 2016 presidential election looks increasingly like another Bush/Clinton tilt, with the country the loser regardless of who wins.

If there is hope, it lies in the GOP primaries.

Then there's no hope at all. The GOP primary season is heavily weighted to favor moderates, because funding through the super PACs is heavily weighted toward the moderates. Major funders love the idea of moderation and hedging their bets with both parties. But show the funding sources that conservative votes are not a captive bloc of the GOP, and the money will follow those votes, not the GOP.