Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

To: scouter
Thank you.

Looking at the Oct. 1st "roadmap" report, using the official (and patently absurd) data, daily new cases among all three W. Africa countries hit 133.3 on Sept. 28th. The report is here.

4 posted on 10/04/2014 10:10:22 AM PDT by ElenaM
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]


To: ElenaM
Ooops! I just noticed that the column headings were wrong. I've corrected them below.

Scouter Ebola Projection Model Version 2.1 - Ebola Case Projections

*********************************************************
Projection Parameters
*********************************************************
Country: All Countries
Run Date/Time: 10/04/2014 at 13:15:41
Model: DTR Model
Start Date: 9/1/2014
End Date: 10/1/2014
Reported cases represent 100% of the true epidemic size
New Cases per Day at End of Period: 172
Rate of Increase per Day: 2.35%
*********************************************************

Weekly for the Next 8 Weeks

Date        Cases                 Deaths                Daily New Cases       Daily New Deaths      
==========  ====================  ====================  ====================  ====================
10/01/2014                 7,491                 3,439                   175                    71
10/08/2014                 8,838                 4,058                   206                    95
10/15/2014                10,437                 4,794                   246                   113
10/22/2014                12,338                 5,671                   292                   135
10/29/2014                14,598                 6,716                   347                   161
11/05/2014                17,287                 7,961                   413                   192
11/12/2014                20,489                 9,448                   492                   229
11/19/2014                24,303                11,222                   587                   273


End of Month for the Next Year from the End Date

Date        Cases                 Deaths                Daily New Cases       Daily New Deaths      
==========  ====================  ====================  ====================  ====================
10/31/2014                15,320                 7,051                   277                   110
11/30/2014                33,146                15,547                   844                   405
12/31/2014                73,924                35,305                 1,893                   923
01/31/2015               165,567                80,387                 4,261                 2,109
02/28/2015               344,116               169,366                 8,892                 4,453
03/31/2015               776,114               387,249                20,136                10,205
04/30/2015             1,710,309               863,619                44,533                22,805
05/31/2015             3,880,621             1,981,314               101,380                52,413
06/30/2015             8,596,752             4,431,396               225,240               117,407
07/31/2015            19,601,541            10,193,372               514,950               270,445
08/31/2015            44,788,229            23,473,373             1,179,439               623,547
09/30/2015            99,825,291            52,668,275             2,634,170             1,400,539
10/31/2015           228,894,782           121,502,640             6,051,399             3,234,010

5 posted on 10/04/2014 10:15:51 AM PDT by scouter (As for me and my household... We will serve the LORD.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson