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"Staying home" was not the problem. Even if people "stayed home," the were dispersed across all 50 states. Because of the nature of the Electoral College, "staying home" might have mattered only in swing states where vote fraud was targeted.

Swing states. Remember those? The election came down to swing states, and to specific precincts in those swing states. The rest of the conservatives outside of those swing states could have stayed home.

So what happened in 2012?

Colorado went 51%-47% for Obama. Denver alone voted 209,759 to 69,755. In a city the size of Denver (pop. 634,265), Romney could only manage less than 70,000 votes?

9 Electoral votes for Obama from a difference of 137,948 votes.

Florida went 50%-49% for Obama. A squeaker. The vote difference was 74,309. Think about all the polling irregularities we heard from Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties, with Republican poll-watchers being kicked out for two hours until the police forced Democrats to let them back in. The vote difference in those three counties alone was 574,033.

29 Electoral votes for Obama from a 74,309 vote difference.

Iowa went 52%-46% for Obama from a 91,927 vote difference. Johnson county had a difference of 26,534 votes, and Linn county had a difference of 20,601 votes. That's half of the state differential right there.

6 Electoral votes for Obama from a 91,927 vote difference.

Virginia went 51%-48% for Obama from a difference of 149,298 votes. Fairfax county had a difference of 87,049 votes. Prince William county had a difference of 28,790 votes. Newport News had a difference of 23,766 votes. Hampton county had a difference of 32,540 votes. These are the heavy blue counties, and they overwhelm the rest of the state.

13 Electoral votes for Obama from 149,298 votes.

Add Ohio's 18 electoral votes from a 166,214 vote difference that came from Cuyahoga county, and it's clear that the election was decided by 1,193,729 suspicious votes from targeted counties in targeted states.

But not because a majority of conservatives "stayed home."

-PJ

Thank YOU. I’ve been wanting to see this set out in plain math. Yours is a truly useful post to reference again.

"Staying home" was not the problem. Even if people "stayed home," the were dispersed across all 50 states. Because of the nature of the Electoral College, "staying home" might have mattered only in swing states where vote fraud was targeted.

There's another element that was at play as well: Romney's bright and shiny GOTV system (Orca) imploded on Election Day, and apparently the backup failed along with it.

Breitbart has a pretty good article on it.

In fact, Orca diverted scarce resources that would have been better used physically moving voters to polling places. By a rough calculation, Romney lost the election by falling 500,000 to 700,000 votes short in key swing states. If each of the 37,000 volunteers that had been devoted to Orca had instead brought 20 voters to the polls in those states over the course of the day, Romney would have won the election.