The recent solar history is quite similar to the “Dalton” minimum of the early 19th century. Note these analogues — regular strong cycles from about 1718 to 1787 similar to the period 1917 to 1989. The details do not match precisely but the overall history was similar. Then the 1787 cycle was long-lasting and had a secondary around 1794. The next peak was a “weak moderate” rather flat period from 1801 to 1804, similar to the 1999 to 2002 period. A long slow decline followed with about three years (1809-11) of nearly zero activity. That was similar to 2007-09. European weather was getting colder during these periods. Now we see the apparent end of a weak cycle, similar to the weak peak of 1816. That one combined with the massive dust veil of Tamboro to create an exceptionally cold year. We may avoid that around 2015-16 if there’s no similar volcanic event, but natural cooling continued beyond that dust veil’s life cycle well into the 1820s. From that point on, activity remained rather modest through a peak in 1829-30 and then resumed much stronger levels with the 1837-38 peak.
Another similar interval ran from 1870 to 1905, strong peak in 1870, weak in 1883 combined with Krakatoa’s dust veil, exceptional cold in North America through that decade, then more moderate-weak cycles in 1893 and 1905.
The idea that we will see another Maunder minimum could be overstated, many think it’s more likely to resemble the Dalton. Effects on climate are not that different, whenever the sun goes off the “regular strong” pulse, the climate seems to cool rather quickly. The reason is mainly due to less solar heat, despite the lack of sunspots which are relatively cool areas of the solar surface, the low-energy spotless sun has an overall lower ability to radiate heat and the “solar constant” drops off by several per cent.
My personal belief is that greenhouse gases are modifying this complex cycle and we’re going to be glad to have them insulating us from an even worse potential cold turn to our climate in coming years. Then maybe when the sun gets strong and regular again, we’ll be beyond fossil fuels anyway, that could be as early as 2025 or maybe as late as 2045 based on the analogues. Time will tell.
Good, interesting posting.
So.........sunspots cause volcanos.
Just kidding!
Danish physicist Henrik Svensmark (professor in the Division of Solar System Physics at the Danish National Space Institute) has a theory that increased cosmic rays hitting the upper atmosphere create more ions, which act as nuclei for cloud formation. More clouds equal more sunlight being reflected, and lower temperatures.
A layman's summary of the theory is here
Good, optimistic thinking.
Any warmth from green house CO2 gas density could be countered by all the black box project the Euroweenies and US have been doing to intentionally cool the planet.