The world may still be reeling from last night’s World Cup semi-Final between Germany and Brazil, but none more so than Nate Silver the celebrated statistician behind the fivethiryeight blog. Silver had pegged Brazil as the favourites to win the cup and stated their chances of success against Germany last night at 65%.
To be fair, no expected four goals inside of six minutes. It simply doesn’t happen in this sport.
But it shows you even statisticians occasionally do get the odds wrong.