Added.
Thanks for the link; I may even buy the book.
Here is a link to a free look at the 1st chapter of the Black Swan book (NYT site), and another interesting link on the subject: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/22/books/chapters/0422-1st-tale.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
http://blackswanevents.org/?page_id=26