What the chart doesn’t show is the probability of each of the individual cells. With two evenly matched teams, the cells in the very center of the chart have the highest probability, with the probably decreasing as you move toward the edges and corners.
With less-evenly matched teams, it’s basically the same, but with the “center” moved accordingly.
And we originally had about a 36% chance to get out of the group.
76% now according to this: http://nesn.com/2014/06/2014-world-cup-usa-has-76-percent-chance-of-advancing-in-209-scenarios-photo/
I will just be positive, I think we advance and will face Belgium.