chance of earthquake?
it either happens or it doesn’t.
50-50 the way i see it.
I tend to agree, and I give earth scientists a lot of credit on the high probability to malarkey scale.
Seismology, though primarily statistical, is yet well grounded in physics, and it’s very difficult to purposely advance a false argument into the scientific method of physics or mathematics.
Now, in climatology OTOH....
The shorter and smaller one makes the time frame for prediction, the closer to -0- the probability. For example, the probability of a big earthquake happening in between 5:05 and 5:10 pm on 20 May 2014, that probability is effectively zero, although technically not zero.