Just a couple days ago the models painted this area as a significant risk. Now ...things don’t look as good for numerous (strong tornadoes). On Saturday, the upper level support lags behind too long and the moisture is not that impressive. Supercells will start out as high based, but may get rooted in the boundary layer later in the evening. Also, the 700 mb temps really cap the atmosphere...everything will depend on timing of the parameters. Sunday looks a little better if you believe one of the models...but for another there is too much forcing which may limit the discrete cells and may just form a linear mode. All in all...what looked like a textbook severe weather outbreak has become much more murky since last night.
You sound like a real meteorologist.