It’s not groupthink. That’s a specific -thing- and it’s a different psychological affect of people operating in groups. This is more properly “crowd think”.
It’s the flash mob of geopolitical prediction. Get a bunch of reasonably plugged-in people to all sit together and process their guesses into a stack of fair estimates based on some current set of facts.... And chances are pretty good that all of the most probable outcomes will be guessed. Once the list of guesses is defined, those guesses are ranked by crowd-sourcing again into a short list of most probable to least... And shazam. Predictions. Maybe even some pretty good ones.
There is more to it than just the crowd think aspect. There are certain limitations imposed upon members of the intelligence community that do not exist in the open community. Due to the problems of handling classified intelligence, the risk of moles compromising sensitive intelligence and agents, and the need to compartmentalize the intelligence and analysis; there are often situations where intelligence available from open sources does not come to the attention of the intelligence analysts. Even when the open source intelligence does come to the attention of the intelligence analyst, they are often denied the opportunity to include it in an intelligence analysis, communicate the intelligence to other analysts, or act upon the open source intelligence.
In one real world example, an open source publication presented some information about the Soviets deploying some improved anti-aircraft AFV (armored fighting vehicles), but the intelligence officers of a military unit tasked with the job of suppressing this surface-to-air threat were not allowed to read the article or publication, disseminate the information in the article, or use the information found in the article in their own intelligence analysis or tactical doctrine.
The person working with only open sources faces a disadvantage having no access to classified intelligence, but also has the advantage of not being confined to sources and methods that must be safeguarded with counter-intelligence procedures.
Some intelligence analysts do have access and opportunity to use open source and classified intelligence, but they always face the problem and limitation where the use of the open source could inadvertently also compromise a classified source. To avoid such eventualities, the intelligence analyst may have to censor the open source to avoid problems with the classified sources.
“It’s the flash mob of geopolitical prediction. Get a bunch of reasonably plugged-in people to all sit together and process their guesses into a stack of fair estimates based on some current set of facts.... And chances are pretty good that all of the most probable outcomes will be guessed. Once the list of guesses is defined, those guesses are ranked by crowd-sourcing again into a short list of most probable to least... And shazam. Predictions. Maybe even some pretty good ones.”
Makes sense. Sounds like fun
The Pentagon tried to do this immediately after 9/11 to predict the next enemy moves in the War on Terror. The Media hooted at it. The key is that the participants need to have some expertise and be “plugged in”.
The Woods Hole institute did something like this when they were searching for the lost submarine, “USS SCORPION”. They asked every sub commander, XO to place a ‘bet’ as to where the sub would be found based upon its last known position, course & a list of theories as to what caused the sub’s demise. The search area was narrowed partly on the consensus and the sub was located.
The Pentagon tried to do this immediately after 9/11 to predict the next enemy moves in the War on Terror. The Media hooted at it. The key is that the participants need to have some expertise and be “plugged in”.
The Woods Hole institute did something like this when they were searching for the lost submarine, “USS SCORPION”. They asked every sub commander, XO to place a ‘bet’ as to where the sub would be found based upon its last known position, course & a list of theories as to what caused the sub’s demise. The search area was narrowed partly on the consensus and the sub was located.