Yours is an excellent analysis. My only comment would be that applicants to Harvard probably also skew relatively heavily towards Asian, compared to a percentage of the US population.
But your point still holds - your (and my) daughter are still competing for 164 spots from perhaps 10-13,000 white/female/non-athlete applicants.
Very tough odds.
His response, "So What?"
I was pushing for MIT but she visited the campus and thought that they looked like overly stressed Nerd’s - we are very happy with Tufts
You look at some of the student reviews on different colleges
http://www.studentsreview.com/
My 2 nephews went to both Harvard and Yale and a third to Amherst, the diversity thing dominates the atmosphere where all break off into racial/culture clicks topped off with some snobbery. Makes for an unfriendly experience and I do not think my daughter would have been happy at any of them.
Harvard seems the worst, Yale not as bad as the rest but i would take a hard look at where she applies.