You may be right since the old flight line was assuming that it flew over northern Sumatra which would have been in Indonesian airspace and they would have painted it on radar.
The new route is the same as a route charted out early on that assumed that he flew further toward waypoint IGREX to get around Indonesia before turning south.
It also assumes an airspeed of 460mph not 518mph that they have been using. The 460 route versus the 518 route is in this link:
This means that opposed to what they are saying publicly they are assuming a slower air speed at lower altitude.