Heaven forbid!!! Telling a student that he’s not cut out for college will damage his self-esteem which will traumatize him forever. (Do I really need a /sarcasm tag here?)
A kid should simply be told the stats for students with his test scores and grades—and be introduced to the community college system if his success is questionable.
My oldest son thought I was going to foot his bill for college. He didn't like it when I told him his performance in HS was not worthy of a 4 year college. I suggested he go to community college for two years, get his AA, and then we'd talk again.
The need for that conversation never arose, as he never got his AA. He's doing fine, though, moving up the ladder at the TSA, and doing a good job for them.