I am not sure about anything so I will speculate also, and say, however it got into the water, I tend to think that is exactly where it is too. I find it hard to imagine it could have landed somewhere. Cell phones with video cams are everywhere, so how many people would have to be quiet, to keep it a secret, no matter how remote it might be? A secret is not a secret, if more than one person knows about it. Big conspiracies tend to unravel when someone talks. The government, with all their sophisticated electronics, may have an idea, but may be keeping quiet about it. Who knows for sure. We might never know the truth.
I saw a map on an aviation forum that followed the line across the Andaman islands to a very thin corridor with no radar, space to go just in between, and it led toward Khazakstan..Xingai...etc.
” I find it hard to imagine it could have landed somewhere. Cell phones with video cams are everywhere, so how many people would have to be quiet, to keep it a secret, no matter how remote it might be’
This point just explains why they would go to high altitude where people pass out within seconds, outside the range of any cell towers, then die, of course.
This was a pre-planned well executed event, or else we would know something by now.
Since there were no claims, I also lean towards them doing this either as a test case, or it’s just a first step in a larger plot, notions of nukes being flied somewhere not excluded.
What did Sherlock Holmes say, something along “If you eliminate most options, then whatever is left, however implausible is what happened” — not exact quote, but along these lines and I think it applies in this case.