Apples big problem is they made the same mistake with the phone that they did with the PC.
They aren’t getting the phone back. The ship has sailed.
Cars.
Cars are what is next. Car telemetry, satellite analysis of traffic, better richer content (audio books, language lessons, better news), organization of schedule and files between home, car, and office.
And all of it with privacy.
Facebook just paid WhatsApp $19B. 55 person company. All the app does is allow texting, for free — but with complete privacy. No copies of messages on the phone or the server.
Microsoft? Botched the Xbox One launch. Botched the Surface launch, and relaunch. Botched Azure. Botched Office 365. Botched Win8. Botched WinPhone. Botched Nokia purchase. Good thing Office still brings in the bucks that it does.
Law of large numbers, entanglement with the FedGov and other world govs, and a hiring regimen that kills innovation and you’ve got Apple and Microsoft.
They've never had a majority market share with mobile phones (20-25% top). But they do get almost all of the profit.
Apple is not Microsoft. They have very different business models, and using one's history to predict the other is... less than scientific. That's not to say they can't wind up with similar long-term results, but one is not predictive of the other.