I look forward to see this once-maligned technology make its way into homes, cars, and pretty everything else powered by electricity.
Any possible timelines as to when it will become commonplace?
Any possible timelines as to when it will become commonplace?
***I’ll give you my perspective. In 1982 I bought my first computer, a 2nd hand Apple2E for $3500. I thought it would retain its value for a decade. Computers would follow the same price reductions as cars. In 10 years. the car I bought was worth $1400 MORE than what I bought it for, while the Apple was worth about 5% of what I paid for it. “Commonplace” happened much faster than I anticipated.
Similarly, I was in a business in 1985 where I figured it was worth buying a cell phone, which would have cost me $400/month + about a dollar a minute for talking on it. I figured it would be commonplace within about 15 years. It was commonplace sooner than that.
I like what Jed Rothwell has to say about it:
http://www.mail-archive.com/vortex-
I recall a story about Henry Ford and Charles Kettering. Kettering invented
the automobile self-starter, which replaced the hand-crank. Ford said to
him, “I am not going to equip my cars with these. I’ll stick with the hand
crank.” Kettering replied: “You will equip your cars with self-starters. It
isn’t your choice.” He meant it was a technological imperative. No law was
needed to enforce this. No one “decided” that all cars would have
self-starters. Once the technology was invented, nothing could stop it from
replacing the hand-crank. Henry Ford was the most powerful man in the
automotive industry, but he could no more stop the self-starter than a
new-hire assembly line worker could have. Anyone who wanted to stay in the
automobile industry had to use it.
The same is true of every other major inventions. No person and no
institution could have “stopped” or “slowed down” personal computers after
1980, or the Internet after 1990, or — if Rossi or someone else ever
introduces it — a practical form of cold fusion sometime in the future. It
will not be something you can “opt out of.” You will have no choice,
because no other source of energy will be available. The oil companies and
wind-turbine makers will go bankrupt.
I am also reminded of Trotsky’s grim words: “you may not be interested in
war, but war is interested in you.” You cannot opt out of history.
There isn’t really that much Pd around.
Hopefully it will be true one day, but right now it’s all hype and scam.