Projected winners: Denver & Seattle although both are vulnerable.
Why I picked 'em and how they can be upset (based on scoring, yardage rankings, and offense-defense matchups):
NEW ENGLAND at DENVER
Denver:
How Denver should win: by showing up
How Denver could lose: getting too far behind NE
This should be another gunfight at the Denver Broncos (OK Corral) Stadium with both offenses firing away and it could be the last one with the ball wins. Denvers #1 scoring offense should put up points against NEs #10 scoring defense. The Denver Broncos are a one-trick pony express (PASS!!) ranked #1 in passing yardage in the NFL. NEs #18 pass defense is in trouble. Even Denvers mediocre #15 rush offense looks strong against NEs 3rd worst rush defense in the NFL. Nevertheless, NEs #10 scoring defense shows it may be stubborn in the red zone. Denvers main vulnerability is their 3rd worst pass defense in the NFL and it may be a critical vulnerability in this game. If Denver falls too far behind, it may have trouble catching up with NE.
NE:
How NE could win: pass much more than run
How NE may lose: getting too far behind Denver
NE will also need to keep up with Denvers scoring and has a chance to do so with the NFLs 3rd best scoring offense going against Denvers paltry #22 scoring defense. Tom Bradys #10 passing offense should mow down Denvers weak #27 pass defense so this should be another gunfight. NEs fair offensive yardage rankings do not reflect its high scoring offense which suggests red zone effectiveness and/or effective special teams. NEs #9 rush is countered well by Denvers #8 rush defense, so if NE runs too much they will probably fall behind which could be fatal, as with San Diego last Sunday. But if NE sticks to their guns staying mostly with the pass, they should have good scoring chances. NEs mediocre-to-lousy defense yardage ranking belies its #10 scoring defense which suggests that its defense, like its offense, is tough in the red zone.
Projected winner: Denver
SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLE
Seattle:
How Seattle should win: by rushing much more than passing
How Seattle could lose: by passing too much
Unlike the offensive battle in the AFC, this NFC Championship game will be dominated by defense. Seattle has the #1 defense against scoring in the NFL. They are also the #1 defense against pass yardage and #7 against rush yardage. The strength of Seattles #8 scoring offense is their #4 rush yardage. Their weakness is their #26 pass yardage offense greatly outmatched by SFs #7 pass defense. The match is a toss-up when Seattle runs, #4 run offense vs. #4 run defense. Under playoff pressure, it could be a challenge for Seattle to use their best chance on offense by running much more than passing. Seattles 12th Man home advantage could make up for game-plan mistakes.
Niners:
How SF could win: rush much more than pass
How SF might lose: too many pass plays.
SFs strength is their #3 defense against scoring which should effectively slow down Seattles # 8 scoring offense. SFs #4 run defense should slow down Seattles #4 run offense while SFs #7 pass defense should effectively shut down Seattles #26 pass offense. SF has to hope Seattle decides to pass a lot. SF has the same challenge on offense as Seattle. SFs offensive strength is their #3 rush which should score against Seattles #7 rush defense. However, SF has yet to turn Kaepernick into a fully developed QB and their offense into a fully dimensional offense. SF will almost certainly lose if their game plan majors on their 3rd worst pass offense in the NFL against Seattles #1 pass defense. SF needs to do more than rely on its defense to win the game and SFs best chance to outscore Seattle on offense is to mostly run the ball. For viewers, the most competitive part of the game will be Seattles and SFs rush offense (#4 and #3) against Seattle and SFs rush defense (#4 and #7).
Projected winner: Seattle
A little in-depth analysis on Post #90, if interested.