I don't know why they call that a contraction, GDP per person was basically unchanged during that period. It just didn't grow like before and after, that's all. Reconstruction I'm sure leveled things for a while.
A GDP chart does show a lot of stability though, so I don't know where they're getting a "contraction" from. Do you have any charts that show anything other than stability?
Actually GDP per person was way up during that period, not unchanged. I think your source is suspect.
I don't know why they call that a contraction,
Maybe because from 10/1873-6/1897 (280 months), we were contracting for 161 months?
BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES |
DURATION IN MONTHS | ||||
Peak | Trough | Contraction | Expansion | Cycle | |
Quarterly dates are in parentheses |
Peak to Trough |
Previous trough to this peak |
Trough from Previous Trough |
Peak from Previous Peak |
|
June 1857(II) October 1860(III) April 1865(I) June 1869(II) October 1873(III) March 1882(I) March 1887(II) July 1890(III) January 1893(I) December 1895(IV) June 1899(III) September 1902(IV) May 1907(II) January 1910(I) January 1913(I) August 1918(III) January 1920(I) May 1923(II) October 1926(III) August 1929(III) May 1937(II) February 1945(I) November 1948(IV) July 1953(II) August 1957(III) April 1960(II) December 1969(IV) November 1973(IV) January 1980(I) July 1981(III) July 1990(III) March 2001(I) December 2007 (IV) |
December 1854 (IV) December 1858 (IV) June 1861 (III) December 1867 (I) December 1870 (IV) March 1879 (I) May 1885 (II) April 1888 (I) May 1891 (II) June 1894 (II) June 1897 (II) December 1900 (IV) August 1904 (III) June 1908 (II) January 1912 (IV) December 1914 (IV) March 1919 (I) July 1921 (III) July 1924 (III) November 1927 (IV) March 1933 (I) June 1938 (II) October 1945 (IV) October 1949 (IV) May 1954 (II) April 1958 (II) February 1961 (I) November 1970 (IV) March 1975 (I) July 1980 (III) November 1982 (IV) March 1991(I) November 2001 (IV) June 2009 (II) |
-- 18 8 32 18 65 38 13 10 17 18 18 23 13 24 23 7 18 14 13 43 13 8 11 10 8 10 11 16 6 16 8 8 18 |
-- 30 22 46 18 34 36 22 27 20 18 24 21 33 19 12 44 10 22 27 21 50 80 37 45 39 24 106 36 58 12 92 120 73 |
-- 48 30 78 36 99 74 35 37 37 36 42 44 46 43 35 51 28 36 40 64 63 88 48 55 47 34 117 52 64 28 100 128 91 |
-- -- 40 54 50 52 101 60 40 30 35 42 39 56 32 36 67 17 40 41 34 93 93 45 56 49 32 116 47 74 18 108 128 81 |
|
|||||
Average, all cycles: 1854-2009 (33 cycles) 1854-1919 (16 cycles) 1919-1945 (6 cycles) 1945-2009 (11 cycles) |
17.5 21.6 18.2 11.1 |
38.7 26.6 35.0 58.4 |
56.2 48.2 53.2 69.5 |
56.4* 48.9** 53.0 68.5 |
|
* 32 cycles ** 15 cycles |
Source: NBER
The determination that the last expansion began in June 2009 is the most recent decision of the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research.