Sometimes technologies are so disruptive that they just collapse time and distance. Railroads back in the 19th century were one. In the eastern USA canals were built in the 1820’s. This technology is roughly 5000 years old. Railroads were built starting in the 1830’s. They were a 5000 year leap forward, collapsing the time it took to get between places.
Roughly the same thing is going on today with computers only in reverse. They are collapsing distance by collapsing the time it takes to work through the issues of space travel. The faster computers go — the sooner will come intersteller travel.
We live in a moment of time during which computers are one speed. 10 years ago computers were much slower—so intersteller travel was much further in the future. 10 years from now computers will be much faster so intersteller travel will come much sooner.
I look to the Kurizwell’s inflection point in +-2039. He figures computers will become sentient at that point.
I don’t know that that will happen. But its likely that technology will move to the point where all the ingredients will be in place for large scale off world migrations. Certainly anyone paying attention today knows that by then 3d printing and advanced robotics will make offworld mining and manufacture quite do able. Thorium, h3 and water on the moon and mars will enable stable plentiful power sources.
My WAG is that large offworld migrations begin about 2050-60.
That’s breakout into the solar system.
Gene Rodenberry’s Star Trek—which came out in 1969— took place mostly between 2250 and 2290. That’s roughly the same distance in the future as the French and Indian wars of 1750 and the american constitution’s creation in 1790 are in the past. That puts already mature interstellar travel 250 years in the future.
A more primitive form of interstellar travel is shown in the 2009 movie Avatar. This movie is set roughly 150 years from now in the mid 22nd century.
It has been roughly 500 years since Columbus sailed across the atlantic.
Our age today is very like that one.
I expect DNA to be used in computing within 5 years. That should be a game changer. I post a lot of tech stories here, even though I am anything but a techie and most of it just amazes me.
If faster than light travel is possible we will figure it out and use it. If it’s not we are unlikely to ever bother with manned travel outside our solar system.
Thank you so very much for honoring me with what you wrote! Most illuminating!
But you also have to take into consideration that right now we have Marxists and muslims hellbent on starting WW3 nuke style, so mankind may never even reach 2039. I mean just think how close we are right now to that...Obama has pretty much given the OK for Iran to build nukes. IRAN!!!
But don’t forget, like Roddenberry and others, knowing the past is one thing but predicting the future another.
Many marvel about the communicators and the fact we now have cell phones. Uh, when Star Trek came out I was 8 years old and had pretty good walkie talkies. Seemed normal to me they’d have better ones.
But things like warp drive and matter beamings aren’t going to happen by 2300. Don’t see any science on warp bubbles much and that is why the ship can travel at those speeds, not because of the propulsion engines. And it will take some really sophisticated computers before there is matter transfer.
But again, old science fiction rethought (for Roddenberry it was a budget issue - cost less that constant shuttle effects): Remember the original “The Fly” with Vincent Price?
Also, a lot of what we now think is new is really just making the old better. You’re railroad example is a real change, as was flight. Roads, canals, ships on oceans...all got better but have been around for millenium. Even plumbing, water systems, sewer systems, or the toilet...all old stuff.
Great post ckilmer. Love this stuff.
Perhaps it has escaped your notice that we’re currently $17 TRILLION IN DEBT with $140 TRILLION IN UNFUNDED LIABILITIES?!?
There is no money and no constituency for the level of investment necessary for your dream.
Orion is “supposed” to launch the first test flight next year, with the first manned test flight “scheduled” for 2020.
Take a peek at the cost/schedule curve, then tell me when your break through miracle needs to occur to meet your time table.