Think of the concept known as mainstream consensus, regarding any given event or cluster of events, among historical experts.
If you understand that such a thing exists—guess what the consensus is on the events surrounding the resurrection of Jesus?
You mean the mainstream consensus that certifies global warming, despite the proven impossible of predicting non-trivial future states from past states for a Navier Stokes equation system (temperature and density changes with fluid flow) described by nonlinear, chaotic system with sensitive dependence on initial conditions.
You mean that mainstream consensus?
Usually it is at DU where people tell you to let others do the thinking for you. Is this really FR?