Posted on 12/02/2013 8:34:12 AM PST by xzins
With one week to go before the BCS rankings leave us forever, an undefeated Big Ten power missing out on the national championship is somehow an actual worry. Meanwhile, Florida State's sitting pretty. Full standings below.
It doesn't matter that Ohio State went 12-0 last year. It doesn't matter that an unbeaten Auburn was shut out of the BCS National Championship in 2004. It doesn't matter that Ohio State has lost two national title games against SEC teams in recent years. It doesn't matter that the SEC has won seven straight championships.
Or at least it shouldn't.
What will matter, however, is whether the BCS polls and computers rank Ohio State or Auburn No. 2 next week, assuming the Buckeyes and (burnt orange and navy blue) Tigers win their respective conferences. We'd thought we were just about done with the season's series of debates over which team should rank No. 2 and which should rank No. 3, but we've only just now arrived at the biggest one yet.
For now, the updated BCS standings after Week 14's wild weekend:
A win by either the Spartans or the other Tigers would render all this moot (except for Auburn athletic director Jay Jacobs suddenly becoming a huge Mizzou* fan, we trust).
* Though Missouri would have a better case for No. 2 than Auburn would, if you ask me, since the (black and gold) Tigers have spent most of the year smashing fools by exorbitant margins. But nobody's asking me. Mizzou's probably too far back to jump that far, barring insanity.
If our new Nos. 2 and 3 win their conferences, the polls would be where Florida State finds its Pasadena opponent. While many voters would fall back on the SEC's presumed strength of schedule and difficulty (and most strength of schedule numbers do rate Auburn's as tougher so far), others would sympathize with a 13-0 BCS conference champion that was ineligible last year. At the moment, the Buckeyes hold that advantage, and would any voters who were unconvinced by an Auburn win over Alabama really be swayed by one over Missouri?
The difference could be Urban Meyer, who's successfully stumped his team into a BCS National Championship before -- and that was an SEC team at the expense of a Big Ten team. But do voters still think of Meyer as they did then? Whether Meyer's national profile has changed since '06 due to various controversies would actually matter. Like, actually help determine the season's champion. That's insane and ridiculous, but it's the system.
We don't know whether Auburn or Ohio State would win the right to go play FSU if the two played on a neutral field. We don't have a playoff yet, not for 12 more months. We do know the Buckeyes have won all but two of their games by multiple scores, while Auburn's won by a single score six times (including the two luckiest, most improbable winning plays of the year). Auburn's also lost a game by 14 points. Gus Malzahn and Nick Marshall have led an immaculate rebuild, but let's not let that loss be a footnote.
So it begins. One more week. The only vital contributions to the debate going forward will be those made by the players on the field in the Big Ten and SEC championship games.
Everyone has always known that a playoff is the best answer. Not until next year, though. We’re stuck with polling as the means of pairing the best teams.
I’m glad to have a 4 team playoff, but I prefer an 8 team. I’m fairly sure 8 teams will definitely include the best in the nation.
I’m also surprised how many fans don’t know the difference between “strength of schedule” and “strength of schedule rank.”
Just because my SOS rank is 40 and yours is 60 doesn’t mean they are separated by a significant actual SOS. That could be by as little as 2 or 3 points, given they get carried out to 3 or 4 decimal places.
For example, Arizona State at 10-2 has the #4 ranked SOS. Auburn at 11-1 has an SOS rank of #26.
If Auburn should jump over Ohio State because it has one loss but an sos rank of 26 and osu has zero losses but an sos rank 61, shouldn’t Az State, by the same logic, jump over Auburn?
Auburn’s SOS is 74 and Ohio States is 68. (Higher is better in actual sos.) What that means is averaging the strengths of the teams played by Auburn gives a 74 and averaging OSU’s gives a 68. Averaging Arizona State’s gives an 80.
If one were to talk schedule, here is Auburn’s:
Sat, Aug 31 vs
#34 Washington St
#110 Arkansas State
#44 Mississippi St
#17 LSU
#35 Ole Miss
#217 W Carolina
#19 Texas A&M
#80 Florida Atl
#83 Arkansas
#63 Tennessee
#18 Georgia
#2 Alabama
#5 Missouri*
With Missouri, that should average to about a 55 for the team’s played current position rank in the Sagarin format.
Ohio State is an average of 76, also using current rankings.
#68 Buffalo
#96 San Diego State
#121 California
#225 Florida A&M
#10 Wisconsin
#65 Northwestern
#25 Iowa
#52 Penn State
#149 Purdue
#73 Illinois
#57 Indiana
#39 Michigan
#13 Michigan State
There is nothing to debate. If OSU wins they will play for the national title. The SEC was and still is way overrated this year. They should try going 2 years undefeated then they can have a point.
In 60+ years of football watching, don’t think I’ve ever seen a finish like the Iron Bowl.
That was a great run.
1982 Cal-Stanford is the only thing that comes close. And maybe Flutie’s TD against Miami.
Great execution and coaching (Yes, Coaching Matters!), by Malzahn, knowing Bama would have a bunch of big, slow blockers on the field.
The SEC has won the last seven BCS championships. It is the best football conference by far. Auburn or Missouri should be in the championship game, depending on who wins the SEC championship.
As soon as he caught the kick, I knew he was going to score.
The SEC this year is very weak.
Some pretty bad teams in the SEC this year: Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, all pretty atrocious, and none of those teams would even win Conference USA.
As an UGA fan, I don’t care. I am not even going to watch the two bozos in the game this weekend.
Everyone in the Obama Administration knows Tulane should be in the national championship game. That is all.
Well if we are using past performance to judge who goes this year...then No one has beaten OSU for 2 years! That makes them #1.
Baylor should be ranked higher.
This is really pretty simple. OSU is undefeated. If they beat Michigan State, they go to the BCS Championship. Auburn and Missouri each have one defeat. If Michigan State beats OSU, the winner of the Auburn/Missouri game goes to the BCS Championship, Having explained that, it really downs’t matter if OSU, Auburn or Misouri goes to the BCS Championship game because Florida State will “murder” any of the three. None of those teams can stay with FSU and in fact, by beating Alabama, Auburn may have saved Bama from being humiliated by FSU. There is one hope for the FSU opponent and that would be if the FSU QB Wilcox is indicted for that sexual assault allegation last December and then suspended before the game. Other than that, FSU romps.
Winning the last 7 BCS championships in a row is the real test of a conference. OSU had a hard time beating a mediocre Michigan team. The SEC has the best talent and the best teams. The NFL rosters are dominated by the SEC along with the Pro Bowl.
Who the hell has OSU played? Compare that to Auburn or Missouri schedules.
Most stunning ending to a game of significance since Laettner’s shot against Kentucky 92.
And the funny thing is? Vern Lundquist was on both calls. Man’s lived a charmed life.
“downs’t” should have read “doesn’t”. Old typing fingers.
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