It's been quite a few years since I read it and the book got away from me in a move but if I remember correctly, Otto Skorzeny wrote in My Commando Operations that Hitler told him had he known the Russians had so many tanks, he would not have attacked them.
I don’t know if there are that many scenarios where the Germans beat the Soviets.
I also seem to recall Skorzeny writing that in the first half of 1943, both sides were extending armistice feelers in what Skorzeny termed the Ankara Affair. The failure of Operation Citadel removed any prior Soviet interest in an armistice.
Several of the German Generals went on record after the war expressing a belief that had Hitler allowed a "flexible defense", the Germans could have bled the Russians white and forced an armistice. Instead, owing to Hitler's not one millimeter back mentality, German retreats were undertaken in desperation following Soviet breakthroughs.
An army here and an army there and pretty soon you've lost a whole lotta troops. The best General Staff in the world and Hitler overrules them to make bonehead decisions over and over.
I think if the Russians had cut an armistice with the Germans it would only be for the purpose of buying time to gain strength to get back whatever they had to give them.