I don’t see it ever getting down to 5% or 6% under this regime. Of course, with the Department of Labor working the stats, anything is possible I guess.
The huge proliferation of “29ers” is going to help the unemployment rate a fair amount. Basically replacing 3 full timers with 4 part timers.
Many of the schools here are moving their non-degreed staff to “29er” status to avoid Obamacare.
Me either, but I wouldn't put it past them to manipulate the statistics to hit whatever number they want.
Look at the weekly UE figures. FR was paying attention to them for awhile (before everyone realized they were useless). Prior week's stats were *always* revised upwards. 51 out of 52 weeks, for one stretch, for example.
Now, I'm no statistician, but I'd expect them to be on the money a small percentage of the time, and be over / under the rest of the time, at a fairly even distribution. 40% over/ 40% under / 20% correct, plus or minus a couple of points either way, for instance.
But for the administration to be wrong - in their favor - nearly every single time, says to me that someone was jiggering with the numbers. Flip a coin, and see how long it takes you to get 51 out of 52 to come up heads.