“And I don’t think there is any real risk of that “one dominant company” taking over; competition is real and it will have its way.”
Unfortunately in the computer world, companies and developers crave standards. The winner tends to become a monopoly. (see Microsoft)
With the dominance of the Internet maybe this paradigm has changed? But I’m not convinced. It’s always easy bring in the hot new name in the computer world vs what actually works well.
Sorry, but I’m not buying it.
In my experience consumer desire for “standards” is weak and fickle, and can switch to a new “standard” overnight.
The only exception seems to be in the area software providing the equivalent of the public square. In such a circumstance, folks with something to say will gather where there are more ears.
Hence it would be very difficult for a newcomer to successfully challenge FR as a conservative/constitutionalist forum. Or, for anyone to challenge Facebook as a social networking tool. But, don’t forget, Facebook had to challenge the once leading “Myspace” and win in order to gain that dominance. It is possible even if unlikely that someone could knock Facebook off, even at this stage. After all Facebook, is notoriously clunky and inconvenient to use with an interface like a puddle of dog vomit..
As for handphones, or handphone OS, the dynamic is entirely different and the fall from grace can be swift and relentless, as witness Nokia.