Not so fast there....
The data themselves all pointed to a Romney win. Empirically, he should have won.
I tend to suspect that there’s some massive fraud that has gone on. Otherwise, the numbers (not the predictions, but that actual data) just don’t add up.
Either there’s fraud, or math has stopped working like it should.
I tend to suspect that there’s some massive fraud that has gone on. Otherwise, the numbers (not the predictions, but that actual data) just don’t add up.
I agree. Maybe what these experts didn't take into account was the very sophisticated fraud techniques.
I tend to suspect that there’s some massive fraud that has gone on. Otherwise, the numbers (not the predictions, but that actual data) just don’t add up.
I agree. Maybe what these experts didn't take into account was the very sophisticated fraud techniques.
And the prognosticators weren't just right-wing pundits. Remember the University of Colorado forecasting study? It has predicted the results of every presidential race since 1996, even the 2000 anomaly. Retroactively it predicted the results going back to 1980. Back in May and October they predicted the race would be won by Romney:
According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.It's not like there was no respectable evidence for our position. We were wrong, but our hopes weren't based on mere wishful thinking.
“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”
While many election forecast models are based on the popular vote, the model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. They included economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.