Posted on 11/04/2012 7:14:38 AM PST by ScottinSacto
Let's review the events of the final week of the campaign. Exactly a week before election day, the only debate between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan was won by Reagan by a margin of 44 to 36 in a CBS News poll, and by 46 to 34 in the AP poll, and by 2 to i in the widely publicized ABC mock public dial-a-poll. During that same final week, Richard Allen resigned from the Reagan campaign for an alleged misuse of influence during his Nixon White House days. The same day Carter's congressional liaison, Frank Moore, resigned after repeating the unsubstantiated story of the Ayatollah's cancer. On Friday of that week the final economic indicator of the campaign showed inflation still seriously on the rise. And on Sunday morning, November i, the Iranian parliament announced their conditions for freeing the American hostages. Jimmy Carter immediately abandoned campaigning and appeared on national television in the early evening to repeat much of what the public had been hearing all day. It was a week, in effect, with much that could affect the choices made by voters.
(Excerpt) Read more at amstat.org ...
On Tuesday when you find that you are the one ‘sadly deluded’ will you apologize???
Yeah didn’t think so.
Gladly!!
I want Romney to win passionately.
But I’m also realistic about the state of America in 2012.
apparently you missed 2010.....many states elected republican and conservative governors and state houses that hadn’t been held by same in many decades (eg Ohio)...your pessimism is not realism it is just pessimism
I didn’t miss 2010. Conservatives can still win lower turnout off year elections. Hell, we won the Senate race in Illinois. Doesn’t mean Illinois will go for Hussein in 2012.
I don’t know why you’re upset with anything I’ve said. All I said is that Romney might win in a very close race, but that its not in the cards demographically for him to win by a landslide. I have no doubt that if we had the demographics of 1980, he’d win handsomely. But we don’t.
If you want to indulge in an exercise that will make you very sad, go back and read these boards in 2008. We heard that the “pollsters were in the tank for Obama”, that there was a vast underground of hidden voters that would magically appear to win it for McCain, that Palin was energizing the crowds, etc. etc. Hell I wanted to believe it too. How could this beautiful country vote for Barack Hussein Obama for president? How was that even possible??
Denial is the first stage of griefm and there is much to grieve. That said, let’s hoist the champagne and hope that Mitt can pull this one out.
Anderson was a Republican Congressman who ran for the Republican nomination in 1980, and lost to Reagan. He ran as independant to provide a candidate for those who did not want more Carter, but could not stand Reagan, and for a time RePublicans were very concerned that he would split the anti-carter vote and give Mr Peanut a second term. I don’t think Anderson voters were so anti-Reagan that they would have split 80-20-0 with Cater getting 80%, 20% staying home, and Reagan getting zero. But everybody understood that not voting for Reagan meant not voting for the only guy who could beat Carter, so I don’t doubt that the race would have been closer without Anderson.
Tight races are good for TV ratings. Follow the money, better ratings = higher advertising rates.
We’ll see what happens Tuesday....
And apparently you haven’t been paying any attention to the increase in republicans since 2008...Gallup has released interesting new numbers that belie pretty much everything you have said.
All I know is that no one was predicting a McCain win two and three days before the election last time. The early voting in Ohio as an example was strongly for O (by something like 13 or %....this year Romney is carrying the early voting by an estimated 6 or so %.
All of the arguing is moot. Tuesday is the day that will tell.
Carter’s Job Approval was much worse than Obama’s. Also there are a lot more polls now. The election’s going to be close, but looks like Romney’s doing OK, assuming Rove’s analysis of Ohio is correct (Romney wins by 80,000 to 120,000, base on EV results so far.)
Trust me, there were a lot of McCain diehards on this board predicting he would pull it out because the polls were biased. I know, I was arguing with them.
Gallup and all the other pollsters are showing the race essentially tied, so I don’t see how anything they can have released can belie anything I’ve said.
Bluntly put, I do not believe there are enough white voters left to give Romney anything but the slimmest of margins. If he gets 60% of the white vote, which is a lot, and the white vote is 78% of the total, as Gallup has projected, and then he gets 15% of what remains, that brings him to 50.1%, if my math is correct.
So let’s curb our enthusiasm.
we will know on Tuesday....and for the record arguing with folks on FR i snot the same as actually looking at the polls and the methodologies. We will know on Tuesday
>>Bluntly put, I do not believe there are enough white voters left to give Romney anything but the slimmest of margins<<
I sure wish I wasn’t right.
Ominous implications for the America we once knew.
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