Posted on 11/04/2012 6:36:44 AM PST by Blue Turtle
RASMUSSEN SUNDAY: O 49% R 49%... DEVELOPING....
(Excerpt) Read more at drudgereport.com ...
They are just being pragmatic.
THey have some sense of where things will go, but are not sure, and need to balance risk versus gain.
They can slant things for Romney; if they are right, that's fine. If they are wrong, there will be recriminations from the regime's second term. Somewhat less risk, but chance of BIG Problems.
OR.... they can slant things for 0', much more likely they are wrong, but if they are indeed wrong, there will be no recriminations from Romney, and if they are right, there also are no recriminations from the regime's second term.
THus, one way has a two outcomes - the likely with no downside and the unlikely with BIG downside. Compare to the other way - also with two outcomes - both likely and unlikely with no downsides to either.
No they have not been counted, they are just assumed that democrat ballots are for Obama and Republican votes are for Romney. Which historically has been pretty accurate as 90% tend to vote for their parties candidate. However, there was an interesting tidbit buried in yesterday's Washington Post Poll that showed Romney getting 97% of Republicans but Obama only getting 91% of democrats. If 3% of Republicans vote for Obama and 9% of democrats vote for Romney, then the early vote estimates may be overstating Obama's vote by 6%....
Anything is possible, and I do see when you get Rasmussen emails you get lots of ads for things maybe he is a sell out.
I doubt it, certainly hope Gallup is right. Anyway, the national tied number doesn’t mean much when you look at the state polls.
IF we really are tied or leading in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio - then the election is over, Obama won’t get to 50% in those states and many of them should have been his. I say IF.
The media wants a horse race.
Get ready for exit polling showing Zero ahead, but don’t believe a word of it. The press is setting up a claim of a stolen election should Romney win.
1. We were told on the day of the Wisconsin Recall that the exit polling showed the race was too close to call. We all know how that turned out. Here is the link
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47699042/ns/politics/t/wisconsin-recall-election-too-close-call-after-polls-close/#.UJZ_L8U0WSo
2. We were told that Kerry was up 5 points in Ohio in the 2004 election. Bush won OH. Here is the link to a story that says the election was stolen by Bush because exit polling had Kerry up 53 to 47.
http://www.michaelparenti.org/stolenelections.html
It had crossed my mind, no one wants to throw their reputation down the toilet so they all stick to the neutral tie position. Would not surprise.
Lets see what Gallup says tomorrow.
If R turnout is high we win
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Will this be the Chick-Fil-A election? Could be.
http://www.amstat.org/sections/srms/Proceedings/papers/1981_011.pdf
Agreed
He has been twisting his figures to keep Nate off his back and Axelrod .
Sad to see their ability to shut down all opponents !
This figure makes Fox happy because ratings will be high on Election Day coverage .
Factoring in dem voter fraud?
It’s very possible for teh national poll to be misleading, because candidates can have huge leads in California, NY, Texas, etc. and those big leads affect the national total.
But yeah, if Obama seems weaker in some of his blue states, and Romney is strong in red states, you’d think Romney would show a national lead.
Then again we are talking about many polls from many pollsters. I think Rasmussen has it pretty close everywhere.
Costas Panagopoulos of Fordham University, polls
Panagopoulos ranked 23 major polling organizations by the accuracy of their final 2008 presidential election polls. Here is his list:
1. Rasmussen
1. Pew Research Center
2. YouGov/Polimetrix
3. Harris Interactive
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance)
5. Diageo/Hotline
5. ARG
6. CNN
6. Ipsos/McClatchy
7. DailyKos.com
8. AP/Yahoo/KN
9. Democracy Corps
10. Fox
11. Economist/YouGov
12. IBD/TIPP
13. NBC/Wall Street Journal
14. ABC/Washington Post
15. Marist College
16. CBS
17. Gallup
18. Reuters/C-Span/Zogby
19. CBS/New York Times
20. Newsweek
And the link claiming Kerry was up by 5 in OH:
http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/donkeyrising/2004/10/kerry_up_by_5_in_ohio.html
The blue states include the most populous and most EV-rich. CA/NY/IL for starts.
Christie helped out Obozo just enough to close the gap
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Yes, while the storm was a major event that probably benefitted Obama to a small extent, the really damaging thing was the part that Christie played in allowing Obama to appear bi-partisan, a momentary impression that may have had an impact on voters. IMO Christie’s obsequious fawning was needlessly over-the-top.
Who’s got the internals for this poll?
ie, how many D+? has Ras added today?
Methinks he’s putting his thumb on the scale a bit, as he has been all of last week.
I wouldn't worry too much about it. Pat Caddel, Jimmy Carters former pollster, explained this yesterday on FOX. He said that the conventional wisdom is undecideds break for the challenger 2/1. He said that is true, but the 1/3 of undecideds that are going to break for the incumbent tend to do so earlier than the undecideds that break for the challenger. So the incumbent gets a bounce a few days before the election, and the challenger gets everyone else on election day. He said that Carters internal polling had him going up in the polls and in a statistical tie the Saturday before the election, however when the late deciders broke between Sunday and Tuesday, Reagan ended up winning by 8 points. He predicts the same thing in this race, however he says there are much fewer undecideds now than in 1980 so Romney can only get 2 or 3 percent as opposed to 8% for Reagan, so the race will not be a blowout. The fact is Obama has hit his ceiling, he's not going any higher. (In fact considering Ras still uses D+3 when gallup says the turnout will be R+1). The race could still very will end up being 53%R 47%O....
The guy from Hillbuzz is not to be trusted. He’s a Dem but has found a niche with the Right in his and our distaste for Obama. Remember, Hillbuzz swore for months that the Hillary supporting PUMA’s were going to vote for McCain in droves and flip Pennsylvania. He is not to be believed.
Your right .
These pollster have no incentive to stick there neck out .
Axelrod and Daily Kozer nutter Silver will attack .
Crummy push poll outfits like QU and Marist and PPP still get hired to
Cook up dem push polls by their Dem media pals .
If being accurate meant anything QU would have been shut down years ago !
Europe has it right .
Ban polling 2-3 months before an election .
It’s nothing but a psych ops and manipulation racket .
First and last impressions are always the most important in influencing human decisons.
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Romney is closing on a good note. He’s taking the high road while Obama is stuck in the ditch.
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